Aker BP stock drops as Lundin family trims stake and earnings forecasts rise

Aker BP ASA stock (ISIN NO0010345853) has come under pressure after a major shareholder sale, with the Norwegian oil and gas producer’s shares trading around NOK 355.00 on Oslo Bors as of September 18, 2026, down 3.45 percent on the day and still up 36.78 percent year to date according to intraday data from MarketScreener.

Major Lundin-family share sale hits the stock

The immediate catalyst for the move is a large placement by Lundin-controlled investment company Nemesia, which offered 14 million Aker BP shares in a block transaction at a price of NOK 353 per share, corresponding to a discount of about 4 percent versus the prior closing level and a total deal size of roughly NOK 4.9 billion, as reported by Placera on September 18, 2026.

According to Zonebourse, Nemesia, which is controlled by the Lundin family and is one of Aker BP’s key owners, has agreed to a 90 day lock-up on its remaining holding after the placement, indicating that further significant disposals are not expected in the near term under that agreement.

Price reaction and trading context

Intraday data compiled by MarketScreener show Aker BP trading at around NOK 351.40 to NOK 355.00 on September 18, 2026, implying a decline of 3.45 to 4.43 percent over the past five days and a modest year-to-date pullback of around 1.50 to 2.50 percent from recent levels while still up approximately 36.78 percent for the year as highlighted in the Oslo Bors real-time overview.

The placement price of NOK 353 per share stands slightly below the prevailing market quote near NOK 355.00, illustrating how the block deal was structured at a discount of about 4 percent to attract institutional demand compared with the prior close referenced in the Swedish and French coverage by Placera and Zonebourse.

Analysts raise earnings forecasts

While the shareholder move weighs on sentiment in the short term, analysts have simultaneously become more optimistic on Aker BP’s earnings outlook. On September 18, 2026, AlphaValue/Baader Europe increased its forecasts for the company’s earnings per share for the coming years, citing stronger oil and gas price assumptions, according to a note summarized by MarketScreener.

The same analysis indicates that forecast earnings per share for 2026 have been raised by 35.5 percent and for 2027 by 21.8 percent compared with the prior estimates, underscoring a significant upward revision in the medium term profit expectations for Aker BP as compiled in the Italian language overview on MarketScreener dated September 18, 2026.

According to the same MarketScreener summary, the last closing price referenced for Aker BP’s equity equivalents stood at USD 39.04, with an average target price of USD 34.42 for the shares in that view, indicating that at least part of the analyst community still sees limited upside from the prevailing level in dollar terms despite the raised earnings trajectory.

Sector backdrop and risk considerations

Coverage of the wider European market by Placera notes that Aker BP shares fell about 4.4 percent on the day as the placement was executed, highlighting how the block sale amplified the stock’s pullback compared with the broader Stoxx 600 index, which declined only around 0.2 percent.

Norwegian financial daily Dagens Naeringsliv reports that Aker BP’s decline on September 18, 2026 is closely linked to the Lundin family’s decision to reduce its exposure, with Bloomberg cited as stating that around 14 million shares were offered at NOK 353 each, and that this selling came against the backdrop of North Sea oil trading at about USD 102.90 per barrel when the exchange opened.

The combination of a sizeable shareholder sale and a slight softening in oil prices therefore represents a tangible near term risk factor for Aker BP stock, even as earnings expectations move higher, since further volatility in crude prices or additional large placements by major owners could weigh on the share price relative to the updated fundamental outlook.

Stock level and investor takeaway

As of the close of trading on September 18, 2026, Aker BP stock on Oslo Bors was quoted around NOK 355.00, reflecting the impact of the Lundin family’s NOK 4.9 billion placement at NOK 353 per share and the roughly 4.4 percent intraday decline highlighted in Swedish and Norwegian market reports, while remaining significantly above the levels seen at the beginning of the year thanks to a 36.78 percent year to date performance shown in the MarketScreener data.

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