American Express stock faces revenue test after Q3 guidance boost

American Express is entering its next reporting phase after raising its 2026 earnings outlook with its third-quarter results. A Yahoo Finance analysis published Wednesday, November 4 says the focus is shifting from the earnings beat to the quality of the increase and the pace of future revenue growth.

Guidance rose after strong quarter

Third-quarter revenue increased 9 percent year over year to a record 20.1 billion US dollars, while adjusted earnings per share rose 13 percent to 4.68 US dollars. Billed business, a key measure of spending on the network, climbed 8 percent to 454.0 billion US dollars. The net write-off rate improved to 1.8 percent from 1.9 percent a year earlier, pointing to better credit performance during the period.

Management lifted its 2026 earnings-per-share guidance to a range of 18.30 to 18.60 US dollars from 17.30 to 17.90 US dollars. The analysis notes that the higher range includes a pretax gain of 982 million US dollars from the sale of American Express's stake in Global Business Travel Group. On an adjusted basis, the outlook is 17.60 to 17.90 US dollars after accounting for the gain and a restructuring charge.

Revenue growth is the pressure point

The operating picture is stronger than the headline profit increase alone suggests, but revenue momentum has moderated. Third-quarter revenue growth slowed from 10 percent in the second quarter to 9 percent, and commercial spending increased only 3 percent, or 5 percent excluding co-brand portfolios that American Express exited.

The analysis also highlights a lower tax rate of 18.1 percent, compared with 24.1 percent a year earlier. That change contributed 0.29 US dollars per share to the quarter, making the reported earnings improvement less purely operational. For investors, the central question is whether card spending, fee income and credit quality can sustain earnings growth while customer engagement and funding costs remain elevated.

American Express stock traded at 295.05 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 13:05 CET on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.

Investors can follow the real-time quote of American Express stock for the latest trading indication.

Valuation leaves less room

According to the Yahoo Finance analysis, American Express is trading at 16.9 times forward earnings, below its five-year average of 17.4 times and well below the five-year high of 23.1 times reached in December 2025. The valuation has become less demanding even as earnings estimates have held up. Analysts cited in the report expect normalized earnings per share of 17.82 US dollars in 2026, 20.20 US dollars in 2027 and 23.21 US dollars in 2028.

Analyst views remain mixed. J.P. Morgan, BMO Capital and KBW maintained Buy ratings with targets of 365, 380 and 425 US dollars respectively, while Citi, Evercore ISI and Morgan Stanley kept Hold ratings. Citi and Barclays lowered their targets to 335 and 340 US dollars.

The S&P 500 market environment remains relevant for American Express stock as investors reassess growth-sensitive financial companies and valuation multiples.

The next major company test is the fourth-quarter report expected in late January, when American Express typically provides its first outlook for the following year. A renewed slowdown in revenue growth could limit the benefit of the raised earnings guidance, while stable spending and credit metrics would support the case for continued earnings expansion. More news and analyses on American Express stock.