CITIC Securities cuts forecasts for Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory stock

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory (CNE000000DH5) was last quoted at CNY 115.73 on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on October 9, 2026, while CITIC Securities cut its 2026-2028 earnings forecasts on September 26, 2026. As Futunn reported, the research house maintained a Buy rating despite the weaker first-half results.

Forecast cuts follow weaker results

According to Futunn on September 26, 2026, CITIC Securities projected revenue of CNY 33.50 billion, CNY 35.40 billion and CNY 37.80 billion for 2026, 2027 and 2028, respectively. The report described a deliberate effort to control shipments and reduce channel inventory while keeping the distribution system healthier.

The forecast path implies a 14.00 percent revenue decline in 2026 followed by growth of 6.00 percent in 2027 and 7.00 percent in 2028. CITIC Securities also projected net profit of CNY 9.60 billion, CNY 10.60 billion and CNY 11.70 billion for those years, compared with the pressure visible in the latest reported period.

What does the profit decline mean?

Aurelian reported that revenue reached CNY 21.04 billion in the first half of 2026, down 12.18 percent year over year, while net profit fell 24.29 percent to CNY 6.44 billion. The second-quarter figures were weaker: revenue declined 17.74 percent to CNY 6.12 billion and net profit dropped 43.11 percent to CNY 1.06 billion.

The margin picture adds context. First-half gross margin was 75.40 percent, while net margin was 30.74 percent, and the research report linked the quarterly profit pressure to concentrated selling expenses and greater channel incentives. Operating cash flow nevertheless rose 11.23 percent year over year to CNY 6.65 billion, giving the earnings decline a more mixed financial profile.

Stock stays below its yearly high

The Shanghai listing remains below its 52-week high of CNY 203.58 and above its 52-week low of CNY 103.64, both reported for the current quote context. The October 9 price of CNY 115.73 was up 0.55 percent from the previous close of CNY 115.10, a modest move that leaves the half-year numbers and forecast revisions as the central valuation inputs.

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory produces Fen liquor, Zhuye Qing liquor and Xinghuacun liquor. Aurelian identifies the company as a Shanghai Stock Exchange main-board listing and places it in the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indexes. The further course of trading is shown by the continuously updated real-time quote of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory stock.

Market context: Market report Shanghai Composite.

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