Commonwealth Bank stock faces deeper housing correction

Published on 11/09/2026 at 16:02 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Commonwealth Bank stock is in focus after economists cut their housing outlook. The bank now expects a broader property correction and slower growth.

Housing outlook weighs on CBA

CommBank economists now expect national dwelling values to fall 14 percent from their March peak.
Brisbane and Perth face forecast peak-to-trough declines of 18 percent each.
Australia's economic growth is expected to slow to 1 percent by mid-2027.

CBA, AU000000CBA7, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Commonwealth Bank stock is in focus after CommBank economists cut their Australian housing and economic outlooks on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The bank now expects a faster and broader property correction, adding pressure to the domestic lending backdrop.

Housing forecasts move lower

According to CommBank, national dwelling values are forecast to fall 14 percent from their March peak to the eventual trough. The five-capital-city average is expected to decline 15 percent, compared with earlier forecasts of 9 percent nationally and 10 percent across the capitals.

Brisbane and Perth face the steepest projected declines at 18 percent each. CBA has lifted its Sydney forecast to 16 percent, while Melbourne and Adelaide are each expected to fall 13 percent from peak to trough. CommBank says the market could stabilise in the second half of 2027, although it does not anticipate a material recovery.

Slower growth adds pressure

The housing revision follows a broader economic downgrade. CommBank economists now expect annual economic growth to slow to 1 percent by mid-2027, down from 1.8 percent previously. Growth is not expected to return to its trend rate of about 2 percent until the second half of 2028.

For investors, the outlook creates competing effects for the lender. Higher interest rates can support lending income, while weaker housing activity, softer household demand and a longer economic slowdown may weigh on credit demand and asset quality. The housing stabilisation scenario also depends on eventual monetary easing.