Fair Isaac Corp. stock retreats as analysts trim valuation but maintain upside

Fair Isaac Corp. stock (ISIN US3032501047) is trading well below its 2026 peak, yet analysts still see significant upside based on updated valuation and guidance data as of September 17, 2026. According to MarketBeat data on September 17, 2026, the shares recently traded around USD 966.85 on the New York Stock Exchange, down 42.9% from USD 1,692.09 at the start of 2026, while the consensus price target stands at USD 1,553.69.

Analysts trim fair value but keep upside

As Simply Wall St reported on September 17, 2026, its updated intrinsic fair value estimate for Fair Isaac has been reduced from USD 1,512.25 to USD 1,440.16, reflecting more conservative assumptions for future revenue expansion and a slightly higher discount rate of 9.28% versus 9.06% previously.Simply Wall St This revision still implies that the stock is trading at about a 31.2 percent discount to the updated fair value estimate of USD 1,440.16, underlining the valuation gap for long term investors.Simply Wall St

According to MarketBeat on September 17, 2026, Fair Isaac carries a consensus rating of Moderate Buy from 11 buy and 5 hold recommendations and an average price target of USD 1,553.69, which represents roughly 60.7 percent upside from the contemporaneous price level of USD 966.85.MarketBeat For investors, the combination of a trimmed fair value estimate and still robust upside expectations captures the current tension between higher required returns and ongoing growth potential.

Guidance and earnings expectations for fiscal 2026

Beyond valuation, Fair Isaac has also provided guidance that anchors analyst forecasts. As MarketBeat highlighted on September 17, 2026, the company has set its fiscal 2026 guidance at USD 42.430 earnings per share, and the average analyst expects full year earnings of about USD 37.2 per share, implying that the company’s own target is noticeably above the consensus projection.MarketBeat This gap between guidance and consensus suggests that management is confident about operating performance in fiscal year 2026, while analysts remain somewhat more cautious.

Analyst consensus also points to strong top line expansion. According to Yahoo Finance estimates as of September 16, 2026, Wall Street expects Fair Isaac to generate USD 664.94 million in revenue in the quarter ending September 2026 and USD 639.69 million in the quarter ending December 2026, with full year 2026 sales projected at USD 2.54 billion and 2027 sales at USD 2.90 billion.Yahoo Finance The implied sales growth rates of 28.93 percent for the current quarter and 27.72 percent for the full year 2026 underscore that analysts see Fair Isaac as a high growth software and analytics company.

Margin profile and valuation metrics

Profitability expectations are also elevated. As the same Yahoo Finance overview shows, analysts forecast operating or related margins in the low to mid 40 percent range, with indicators such as 42.87 percent for the current quarter and 43.97 percent for the full year 2026.Yahoo Finance For investors, this margin profile is a key part of the equity story, supporting premium valuation multiples even after the share price correction.

On the valuation side, MarketBeat data on September 17, 2026, indicate that Fair Isaac trades at a price earnings ratio of about 27.85 based on the latest share price and trailing earnings and carries a market capitalization of USD 20.82 billion.MarketBeat Compared with the consensus price target of USD 1,553.69, this valuation suggests investors are discounting risks such as regulatory changes in credit scoring and broader volatility in growth software names, while still assigning a substantial premium to Fair Isaac’s cash flow and intellectual property.

Stock performance and trading range

In terms of trading action, the stock has been volatile over the past year. MarketBeat shows that the Fair Isaac share price stood at USD 963.82 at 11:38 a.m. Eastern on a recent session, down USD 27.53 or 2.78 percent on the day, with a 52 week price range between USD 870.01 and USD 1,998.01 and daily volume of 55,547 shares versus an average of 346,631 shares.MarketBeat For investors, the fact that the current price of roughly USD 966.85 sits far below the 52 week high of USD 1,998.01 but above the 52 week low of USD 870.01 illustrates both the extent of the recent drawdown and the room for potential recovery if earnings and guidance play out as expected.

Simply Wall St’s updated analysis emphasizes that while the fair value estimate has been trimmed, key valuation assumptions such as the future price earnings multiple have only edged up marginally, from 24.65 times to 24.69 times, reinforcing the view that most of the adjustment stems from slightly more conservative revenue growth forecasts rather than a fundamental rethink of Fair Isaac’s long term profitability.Simply Wall St This nuance matters because it suggests that the market’s repricing is more about the trajectory of growth than about a collapse in margins.

Closing price snapshot for Fair Isaac Corp. stock

Per Yahoo Finance price data, Fair Isaac stock closed at USD 991.35 on the New York Stock Exchange on September 16, 2026, up USD 5.39 or 0.55 percent compared with the prior close, before ticking slightly higher to USD 992.00 in after hours trading later that day.Yahoo Finance This closing level near USD 991.35, when set against the 52 week high of USD 1,998.01 and the consensus price target of USD 1,553.69, shows that the stock remains materially below both its historical peak and analyst expectations as of mid September 2026.

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