Freeport-McMoRan stock balances profit gains with copper cuts

Freeport-McMoRan entered November with stronger quarterly earnings but a more cautious near-term copper outlook. In a report published on October 28, The Northern Miner said the miner had reduced its copper sales forecasts for 2026 and 2027 while maintaining its timetable for the recovery of the Grasberg operation in Indonesia.

Freeport-McMoRan stock traded at 56.66 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 13:37 CET on Wednesday, November 4, 2026. The quote provides a current trading reference, while the outlook for production and copper prices remains the central issue for investors.

Quarterly Profit Benefits From Copper Prices

Net income attributable to common shareholders reached USD 1.17 billion in the third quarter, compared with USD 674 million a year earlier. Diluted earnings per share rose to 81 cents from 46 cents. Revenue increased 8% to USD 7.55 billion.

Adjusted earnings, which exclude USD 101 million in net charges, amounted to USD 1.28 billion, or 88 cents per share. Operating cash flow increased to USD 1.98 billion from USD 1.69 billion. The result benefited from stronger realized copper prices even as sales volumes declined.

Quarterly copper sales fell to 749 million pounds from 977 million pounds a year earlier. Copper production reached 832 million pounds. The realized copper price rose to USD 6.54 per pound from USD 4.68, helping offset the lower volume. Freeport also expects about 100 million pounds of copper to remain in Indonesian smelter inventory at year-end.

Grasberg Sets The 2027 Recovery Path

Grasberg remains the main operational driver behind Freeport-McMoRan's longer-term growth case. The phased restart follows the deadly September 2025 mudslide at the mine. Mining rates at the Grasberg Block Cave averaged about 70,000 tonnes per day in the third quarter, up from 53,000 tonnes in the second quarter.

Management expects the Indonesian operation to reach 80% of capacity by mid-2027 and approach full capacity by the end of that year. Material-handling upgrades are scheduled for completion early in 2027, while preparations for restarting Production Block 1S are advancing toward mid-year.

The recovery supports a projected increase in consolidated copper sales from 3 billion pounds in 2026 to 3.7 billion pounds in 2027 and 4.1 billion pounds in 2028. The 2028 forecast remains unchanged. The company expects fourth-quarter copper sales to reach 875 million pounds, making it the strongest quarter of 2026, with gold sales nearly tripling from the third-quarter level.

Lower Guidance Highlights Execution Risks

Freeport cut its 2026 copper sales forecast from 3.1 billion pounds to 3 billion pounds. The 2027 forecast fell from 3.8 billion pounds to 3.7 billion pounds. Management attributed the changes to lower production in the United States and Chile and to updated mine plans.

Cost inflation adds another risk. Third-quarter unit net cash costs were USD 2.07 per pound, compared with USD 1.40 a year earlier. Capital spending is expected to reach USD 4.4 billion in 2026 and USD 5.2 billion in 2027. The higher 2027 figure reflects additional U.S. mining equipment and inflation.

Freeport is also expected to decide during the fourth quarter on an expansion of the Bagdad mine in Arizona. The project could require about USD 4.5 billion and add 200 million to 250 million pounds of annual copper production, although completion would take three to four years.

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