NatWest stock: UBS cuts target as margins cloud earnings outlook

UBS has lowered its price target for NatWest Group to 775 pence from 835 pence while retaining a Buy rating, according to Proactive via Yahoo Finance. The broker's revised view adds a fresh earnings risk to the bank's otherwise resilient third-quarter performance.

What changed in the analyst view

UBS said management's expectation for a broadly stable net interest margin through 2027 fell short of market expectations for an expansion of more than 10 basis points. NatWest reported a third-quarter margin of 2.50 percent, excluding one-off adjustments, while the broker estimates that the flatter outlook could produce a 4 to 5 percent shortfall against consensus forecasts for 2027 pretax profit.

UBS cut its adjusted earnings-per-share forecasts by 2 percent for 2026 and by 3 percent for each of 2027 and 2028. The broker also pointed to competitive pressure from Lloyds Banking Group and HSBC as a reason for continued caution toward UK retail banks.

Capital offsets part of the pressure

The analyst view is not uniformly negative. UBS expects risk-weighted assets of around GBP 210 billion from January 2027, below its cited consensus estimate of GBP 214 billion. It also expects a 43-basis-point reduction in NatWest's Pillar 2 capital requirement, which could release about GBP 1 billion of additional capital headroom.

NatWest stock traded at 7.04 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 18:01 CET on Friday, November 6, 2026; investors can follow the real-time quote of NatWest stock.

The FTSE 100 provides the broader UK equity-market context for bank shares: Current market reports.

For more company-specific coverage, see More news and analyses on NatWest stock.