Nike stock falls as index removal and analyst downgrades sharpen turnaround pressure

Nike stock (ISIN US6541061031) is trading near twelve-year lows, with recent prices around USD 36 as of September 17, 2026, while the company faces both index changes and a cautious analyst backdrop ahead of its next earnings report on October 1, 2026.

Index removal puts Nike under additional scrutiny

S&P Dow Jones Indices has confirmed that Nike will be removed from the S&P 100 before trading begins on September 21, 2026 as part of its quarterly index rebalancing, ending an 18-year presence in the large-cap benchmark, according to Yahoo Finance.

The index provider's announcement has intensified debate about Nike's longer-term role in major benchmarks, with investors also discussing the risk that the company could eventually lose its place in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as reported by Mezha on September 17, 2026.

Analyst downgrades and lower price targets ahead of earnings

The index move coincides with a series of cautious analyst actions on Nike stock, focused on weakening sales trends and the risk of earnings shortfalls ahead of the company’s first-quarter fiscal 2027 results scheduled for October 1, 2026, according to Barrons.

On September 18, 2026, Baird downgraded Nike from Outperform to Neutral and reduced its price target to USD 44 from USD 70, citing sluggish sales and uncertainty around the turnaround, as detailed by Yahoo Finance.

UBS also cut its target, lowering the 12-month price objective to USD 42 from USD 48 while maintaining a Neutral rating, and warning that first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings could fall below market expectations because global sales trends have weakened, according to Aastocks on September 18, 2026.

In addition, Morgan Stanley resumed coverage of Nike with an Underweight rating and set a price target of USD 31, while BMO Capital initiated with an Underperform rating and a USD 30 target, highlighting challenges such as slowing lifestyle demand and lower margins, as reported by Investing.com on September 17, 2026.

Recent earnings performance and expectations

Despite the cautious outlook, Nike’s recent reported results show that the company has been able to beat earnings expectations over the past fiscal year. For fiscal 2026, the company delivered earnings per share of USD 0.49 in the first quarter, USD 0.53 in the second quarter, USD 0.35 in the third quarter and USD 0.72 in the fourth quarter, all ahead of consensus estimates for those periods, according to quarterly data published by Barrons.

For the upcoming first quarter of fiscal 2027, the current consensus earnings estimate stands at USD 0.45 per share versus the prior-year actual of USD 0.49, implying that analysts expect a decline of around 8.2 percent in quarterly earnings compared with the same period of fiscal 2026, based on figures compiled by Barrons.

UBS has taken a more cautious stance than the consensus, trimming its first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings per share forecast to USD 0.39 from USD 0.48 and its second-quarter estimate to USD 0.46 from USD 0.48, compared with market expectations of USD 0.44 and USD 0.53 respectively, which points to potential downside of about USD 0.05 in the first quarter relative to the current consensus, according to Aastocks.

Board appointment adds governance and brand-building angle

Alongside the financial challenges, Nike has moved to strengthen its board by appointing Alexandre Arnault, deputy chief executive of Moet Hennessy and former Tiffany executive, as a director through the 2027 annual meeting, expanding the board to twelve members, according to The Globe and Mail.

The appointment follows the September 8, 2026 annual meeting, at which shareholders rejected proposals related to discrimination in charitable donations and environmental targets, and it is intended to bring luxury-brand and turnaround experience to the board at a time when Nike is facing slowing sales and pressure in key markets such as Greater China, as analyzed by Yahoo Finance on September 18, 2026.

Stock valuation, yield and market reaction

At a recent price of USD 36.36 as of September 15, 2026, Nike stock trades at a trailing price-to-earnings multiple of 17.33 times, which is close to its 10-year low and significantly below its five-year median price-to-earnings ratio of 30.56 times, indicating that the shares are trading at a substantial discount to historical earnings valuations, according to an analysis by GuruFocus.

That same analysis assigns Nike a GF Value metric of USD 72.91 per share versus the current price of USD 36.36, implying that the stock is undervalued by approximately 50.1 percent on that valuation model, and notes that Nike offers a dividend yield of 4.5 percent with a payout ratio of 78 percent and a three-year dividend growth rate of 7.1 percent, according to GuruFocus.

Nike shares have fallen more than 40 percent year-to-date as of September 15, 2026 and are trading at twelve-year lows, illustrating how the market has repriced the company amid concerns about sales momentum and margin pressure, according to Yahoo Finance.

Nike stock price and trading details

On the New York Stock Exchange, Nike stock last traded at USD 36.36 on September 15, 2026 at 10:38 a.m. Eastern time, down 1.86 percent on the day, after closing the previous session at USD 36.37, according to intraday data from Barrons.

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