Nike stock falls as S&P 100 exit and analyst downgrades deepen pressure

Nike stock (ISIN US6541061031) is trading near a 12-year low, with recent prices around USD 36 as of September 18, 2026, as the sportswear giant faces removal from the S&P 100 index and a wave of cautious analyst commentary ahead of its next earnings report on October 1, 2026.

Index exit underscores valuation and performance pressure

On September 21, 2026, Nike will drop out of the S&P 100 index after an 18-year tenure, according to an announcement by S&P Dow Jones Indices described by The Street.

The same report notes that Nike shares closed at USD 38.40 on September 4, 2026, near a 12-year low, illustrating how far the stock has fallen from its previous highs while still remaining in the broader S&P 500.

Share price near multi-year lows and market metrics

According to an analysis on September 18, 2026, Marca reports that Nike fell by approximately 2.3 percent at the close of trading on September 18, 2026, with its shares hovering around USD 36 and trading near 12-year lows.

An overview highlighting the index changes states that Nike closed at USD 35.51, with a market capitalization of roughly USD 54 billion, underscoring how the company’s valuation has compressed compared with peers such as Sandisk, which is described as having a market value near USD 260 billion in the same context by Yahoo Finance.

Analyst targets and ratings turn more cautious

Analysts have responded to Nike’s weaker share performance and softer sales trends with several target cuts and cautious ratings. On September 18, 2026, UBS cut its price target on Nike by 13 percent to USD 42 and highlighted that it expects first quarter fiscal 2027 earnings per share to miss consensus by USD 0.05, as well as implying second quarter fiscal 2027 EPS guidance of USD 0.31 to USD 0.43 versus Street expectations of USD 0.53, according to Yahoo Finance.

In the same coverage, UBS’s revised full fiscal 2027 earnings estimate of USD 1.30 per share sits below the buy-side consensus the firm identifies at roughly USD 1.55 per share, suggesting a gap of around 16.1 percent between its view and what investors had been expecting.

A separate analyst overview notes that Morgan Stanley resumed or maintained an Underweight or Sell stance with a price target of USD 31, while UBS holds Nike at Neutral with a target near USD 48 and Telsey Advisory Group trims its target to USD 44, reflecting concerns over global sales growth and consumer fatigue with some lifestyle footwear lines, according to Investing.com.

Another overview of recent ratings states that Morgan Stanley’s analyst Alexandra Straton maintained a Sell rating and a USD 31 price target, while BMO Capital also has a Sell rating, and UBS most recently assigned a Hold, illustrating a split but generally cautious analyst stance toward Nike, as reported by TipRanks.

Dividend and valuation context

For income-focused investors, dividend sustainability is another theme. On September 18, 2026, an assessment by GuruFocus highlighted that Nike offers a dividend yield of 4.59 percent with a payout ratio of 78 percent and a three year dividend growth rate of 7.1 percent.

The same analysis assigns Nike a GF Value of USD 72.91 against a current trading price of USD 35.90, implying the stock is 50.8 percent undervalued on that metric, even as the relatively high payout ratio raises questions over how resilient the dividend might be if earnings disappoint.

Earnings pressure and upcoming results

Ahead of Nike’s next scheduled earnings report, analysts see near term pressure on profitability. As of September 18, 2026, UBS’s pre earnings commentary projected that Nike would miss first quarter fiscal 2027 EPS consensus by USD 0.05 and that its implied second quarter guidance range of USD 0.31 to USD 0.43 would be substantially below the market’s USD 0.53 expectation, according to Investing.com.

The same report ties the weakness in the stock to this earnings risk combined with developments in the athlete endorsement landscape, with the potential for further downward revisions to consensus estimates if Nike’s guidance confirms a slower trajectory.

Endorsement changes and brand dynamics

One factor drawing attention in the market is the shift in athlete endorsements. On September 18, 2026, it was noted that star footballer Kylian Mbappe’s contract with Nike had expired in July and that he had moved to Swiss brand On, ending nearly two decades of partnership, according to GuruFocus.

Coverage from a Japanese market summary explains that this departure contributed to negative sentiment around Nike, with the stock declining as investors weighed the loss of a high profile endorsement against broader demand trends, as described by Zaikei.

Longer term share performance and risk factors

The recent slide comes on top of a longer period of underperformance. As of September 19, 2026, an overview cited by Yahoo Finance notes that Nike shares have fallen 43.84 percent year to date and 50.82 percent over the past twelve months, losing 77.3 percent of their value over the past five years.

Another report highlights that Nike’s market capitalization has declined by roughly USD 230 billion from a record high when the shares traded around USD 179.10; with the stock now around USD 35.51 as of mid September 2026, this marks a drop of more than 76 percent from that peak, according to coverage summarized by News.com.au.

These figures show how far Nike stock has moved away from its former all time highs and why index providers and analysts alike are re evaluating its role as a blue chip name.

Stock level and investor perspective

For investors, the key question now is how Nike’s upcoming earnings report and strategic moves will address the combination of valuation compression, analyst skepticism and brand challenges that have pushed the stock toward multi year lows. With the shares trading near USD 36 on the New York Stock Exchange as of September 18, 2026, Nike stock currently sits far below its historical peak levels and around half of the GF Value estimate cited in recent valuation work.

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