ONGC stock: CLSA sees 72% upside after Q2 results

CLSA has retained its High Conviction Outperform rating on ONGC stock after the state-run energy company reported its September-quarter results. The assessment was reported by CNBC-TV18 on Monday, November 9, 2026.

CLSA's assessment leaves room for a more constructive view on production and operating performance, even though ONGC's standalone profit after tax declined 9.1% quarter over quarter to INR 15,489 crore in Q2 FY27. Revenue from operations fell 5.6% sequentially to INR 43,875 crore, while EBITDA declined 12.3% to INR 24,860 crore. The EBITDA margin narrowed to 57% from 61% in the June quarter.

Projects underpin production outlook

CLSA said the September-quarter profit was 5% below its estimate because of higher impairment losses and a one-off provision. At the operating level, however, EBITDA was 7% above its forecast and core profit before tax exceeded its estimate by 4%.

The brokerage expects production growth in fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 from the ramp-up of the KG-98/2 block and the Daman Upside project. It also pointed to early gains in gas output from Mumbai High following the start of ONGC's service contract with BP.

ONGC declared an interim dividend of INR 8 per share. CLSA's scenario assumes Brent crude averages USD 82 per barrel in fiscal 2028, compared with an oil price of around USD 55 per barrel that it believes is reflected in the stock's current valuation.

India's broader equity market is the relevant backdrop for ONGC stock, with the Sensex providing the domestic index context.

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