Original-Research: SMARTBROKER HOLDING AG (von GBC AG): BUY

Original-Research: SMARTBROKER HOLDING AG - from GBC AG



05.11.2026 / 12:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of GBC AG to SMARTBROKER HOLDING AG



     Company Name:                SMARTBROKER HOLDING AG
     ISIN:                        DE000A2GS609



     Reason for the research:     Research Comment
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                17.80 EUR
     Target price on sight of:    31.12.2027
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Matthias Greiffenberger, Cosmin Filker



Growth pushed back, 2026 earnings outlook improved



On 30 October 2026, Smartbroker Holding AG adjusted its guidance for the
2026 financial year by way of an ad hoc announcement. The adjustment pushes
customer growth back into 2027 but raises the earnings range for 2026. Our
previous EBITDA estimate of EUR 0.50 million sits exactly at the midpoint of
the new range, whereas our revenue estimate of EUR 70.00 million is at the
upper end.



New customers: The new target essentially extrapolates the trend seen since
March. After more than 14,000 new customers in January and February, fewer
than 17,000 were added between March and June, or around 4,200 per month.
For the second half of the year, the guidance implies around 4,000 new
customers per month, meaning that a pull-forward effect from the
state-subsidised retirement savings account (Altersvorsorgedepot) is no
longer assumed.



According to the company, investor restraint did not ease even after the
terms of the retirement savings account were presented in September, as many
prospective customers are postponing opening an account until the subsidy
starts in January 2027. The Management Board therefore expects largely
linear development through to year-end, with only a slight seasonal uptick
in the fourth quarter.



Earnings: The higher EBITDA range reflects lower marketing and customer
acquisition costs, as management has stated that it will not buy growth at
excessive acquisition costs. At around EUR 160 per new customer, 24,000 new
customers in the second half would result in acquisition costs of around EUR
3.8 million; together with the EUR 4.87 million incurred in the first half,
this gives around EUR 8.7 million for the full year, compared with the
planned EUR 12.0 million. The fact that the range was raised by only EUR 0.5
million is likely also due to the EUR 2.0 million lower revenue midpoint. In
addition, we assume that part of the savings will be channelled into
pre-launch marketing for the retirement savings account in the fourth
quarter (GBC AG assumption).



Revenue: Besides the lower number of new customers, a somewhat weaker Media
business is weighing on revenue, although the segment still grew by 6.7% in
the first half. Trading activity among existing customers has calmed after a
very strong first quarter but, according to the company, remains high. The
midpoint of the new range implies a year-on-year revenue decline of around
11% for the second half of 2026, which also reflects the complete loss of
PFOF (payment for order flow) revenue (phased out from March 2026, statutory
ban since 1 July 2026).



Retirement savings account: The key catalyst remains intact but has shifted
entirely into 2027. Existing customers can already apply for the account in
the app, the state subsidy starts on 1 January 2027 and the industry expects
several million new contracts in 2027. Marketing is funded by the credit
line of up to EUR 20 million and the savings in acquisition costs.



Product and insider purchase: With the Smartbroker+ Trader, enhanced charts,
all order types offered by the connected trading venues and account powers
of attorney, the company has significantly broadened its platform for active
investors. CEO André Kolbinger bought shares worth EUR 247,200 at an average
price of EUR 8.24 on 21 October 2026; we see this as a signal that
management considers the current share price attractive.



Forecasts



We are lowering our 2026 revenue forecast to EUR 67.50 million (previously:
EUR 70.00 million), in line with the midpoint of the new range. We are
leaving our EBITDA forecast unchanged at EUR 0.50 million and consider the
upper end of EUR 2.00 million achievable given disciplined marketing
spending. EBIT and net income therefore also remain unchanged.



We are confirming our forecasts for 2027 and 2028. Due to the lower base,
implied revenue growth for 2027 rises from 18.6% to 23.0%. We consider this
achievable, as pent-up demand should translate into new account openings
once the subsidy starts in January 2027, and the broader platform supports
the monetisation of existing customers.



The risk is therefore now concentrated in the first quarter of 2027. Should
demand for the retirement savings account fall short of expectations, our
2027 forecasts would need to be reviewed. New customer numbers at the start
of the year are therefore the key operating indicator to watch.



Valuation



With EBITDA unchanged, the lower 2026 revenue forecast has no material
impact on fair value. Based on our DCF model, we confirm our price target of
EUR 17.80 and our BUY rating.





You can download the research here:
https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=349892dc63731d0f7876f37b6ace5f27



Contact for questions:
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
++++++++++++++++
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR
Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher
Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,5b,7,11). Einen Katalog möglicher
Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: https://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung



Hinweis zu Issuer-Sponsored Research: Vorliegende Researchstudie ist
Issuer-Sponsored Research und wurde in Übereinstimmung mit dem
EU-Verhaltenskodex (EU Code of Conduct) für Issuer-Sponsored Research
erstellt.
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Completed: 05/11/2026 (10:30 am)
First distribution: 05/11/2026 (12:00 pm)



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2429220 05.11.2026 CET/CEST