Original-Research: UmweltBank AG (von GBC AG): BUY

Original-Research: UmweltBank AG - from GBC AG



29.10.2026 / 11:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.



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Classification of GBC AG to UmweltBank AG



     Company Name:                UmweltBank AG
     ISIN:                        DE0005570808



     Reason for the research:     Research Comment
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR8.00
     Target price on sight of:    31.12.2027
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann



Lending business on course for growth - profitability improves



Looking at the first nine months of 2026, UmweltBank AG also reported a
largely stable trend in net interest income, which stood at EUR43.79 million
(previous year: EUR43.35 million). In the third quarter of 2026, following a
slight decline in the two preceding quarters, a noticeable reversal of the
trend was achieved with a 13.8% increase in net interest income.



This positive trend in net interest income reflects, on the one hand, the
gradual phasing out of special terms and conditions in the deposit business
(retail banking), which is likely to have led to a reduction in interest
expense. Since October 2025, UmweltBank AG has been offering 3.0% interest
on instant access savings as part of a special promotion, originally limited
to three months. This initially led to a sharp rise in customer deposits.
Owing to the currently more intense competitive environment and following
the expiry of the three-month period, there was an outflow of retail
customer deposits, which had fallen to approximately EUR3.7 billion as at 30
September 2026 (31 December 2025: approximately EUR4.3 billion), a decline
greater than expected. During the period when the special rates were in
force, the interest earned on deposits placed with the ECB was lower than
the promotional deposit rate, resulting in a negative interest margin. The
elimination of these 'customer acquisition costs' has had a positive impact
on net interest income.



Corporate banking also contributed to the positive trend in net interest
income, having picked up noticeably in the first nine months of 2026. With
gross new lending of EUR324 million, the respective full-year figures for 2025
and 2024 were already exceeded by the end of the first nine months of 2026.
The gross new lending volume of EUR450 million forecast by UmweltBank AG for
the full year 2026 is likely to be well within reach, as, according to the
company, demand in the renewable energy and property sectors remains high.
Thanks to the capital increase carried out in the previous year and the
reduced capital requirement, UmweltBank AG is now better placed to
selectively meet this high demand.



At the same time, UmweltBank AG's financial result for the first nine months
of 2026 fell significantly to EUR3.61 million (previous year: EUR14.84 million).
The high figure for the previous year was largely due to a one-off item of
income arising from a profit distribution by a subsidiary. The net
commission and trading income was also slightly below the previous year's
level at EUR4.98 million (previous year: EUR5.30 million). This was primarily
due to weaker-than-expected income from securities trading and payment
transactions.



The overall decline in total income to EUR51.72 million (previous year: EUR60.72
million) was offset by a significant improvement in administrative expenses
to EUR46.42 million (previous year: EUR51.59 million). This was driven in
particular by the cost-cutting and efficiency programme implemented, which
led to a significant reduction in other administrative expenses (IT costs,
consultancy and audit fees, other administrative expenses) to EUR20.36 million
(previous year: EUR29.26 million). This more than offset the increase in staff
costs to EUR25.79 million (previous year: EUR21.85 million), which was due to
the planned expansion of the workforce and salary adjustments. As a result,
UmweltBank AG achieved a pre-tax profit of EUR5.31 million (previous year:
EUR9.13 million) in the first nine months of 2026. The positive trend
reflected in net interest income is also evident on a quarterly basis.
Following a pre-tax profit of EUR0.23 million (Q1 2026) and EUR1.95 million (Q2
2026), the figure for the third quarter stood at EUR3.13 million.



Following the publication of the figures for the first nine months of 2026,
the management of UmweltBank has adjusted certain elements of its guidance
for the current financial year. Whilst the forecast for net interest income
(EUR60-65 million) and net financial income (EUR4-8 million) remains unchanged,
net commission and trading income is now expected to be lower, at EUR6-9
million (previously: EUR10-15 million). This is due to the expected
non-placement of two planned bond issues planned for 2026, as well as
weaker-than-expected income from the securities business.



In view of the continuing intense competition on interest rates and the
associated outflows from overnight deposits, management has reduced the
forecast for retail customer deposits at the end of 2026 to around EUR4.0
billion (previously: EUR4.0-5.4 billion). Together with lower customer growth,
total expenses are also expected to fall significantly. With the additional
efficiency and cost-cutting programme currently underway, the Management
Board of UmweltBank anticipates other administrative expenses of EUR28-32
million (previously: EUR32 million). This would offset part of the expected
lower net commission and trading income. Furthermore, due to the ongoing
recovery of individual property finance facilities, the company expects
reversals of previously recognised loan loss provisions, meaning that a
positive contribution to earnings from risk provisions of between EUR0 and EUR4
million is forecast for the full year. Overall, these effects result in an
unchanged EBT forecast of EUR12.5-17.5 million, with earnings expected to be
at the lower end of the forecast range.



We have adjusted our forecasts for the current financial year 2026 in line
with the updated company guidance. Given lower commission and trading
income, we anticipate lower expenses and therefore expect a virtually
unchanged pre-tax profit of EUR11.72 million (previously: EUR12.02 million). Our
estimates for the coming financial years remain unchanged. On 10 December
2026, the company will present a strategic plan extending to the financial
year 2031. This will also involve a reassessment of the previous long-term
growth targets, which could, under certain circumstances, lead to an
adjustment of our forecasts for the coming financial years. Our marginal
forecast adjustment has a negligible impact on the fair value per share
determined using the residual income model. We therefore confirm the price
target of EUR8.00 and reiterate our 'BUY' rating.





You can download the research here:
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Contact for questions:
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Disclosure of potential conflicts of interest pursuant to Section 85 of the
German Securities Trading Act (WpHG) and Article 20 of the Market Abuse
Regulation (MAR). The following potential conflict of interest exists in
relation to the company analysed above: (1,4,5a,7,11). A list of potential
conflicts of interest can be found at: https://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung



Note on issuer-sponsored research: This research report is issuer-sponsored
research and has been prepared in accordance with the EU Code of Conduct for
issuer-sponsored research.
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Date (time) Completion: 29.10.2026 (09:47 am)
Date (time) first transmission: 29.10.2026 (11:00 am)



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2424536 29.10.2026 CET/CEST