Rio Tinto stock weighs copper growth against Oyu Tolgoi risk

Rio Tinto's third-quarter operating update points to solid growth at Oyu Tolgoi and stronger iron ore sales, but the Mongolian mine remains an execution focus after a seismic event. The company released the production review on October 14, while its investor page said on October 30 that underground operations were being progressively restarted after safety reviews.

In the third quarter, Oyu Tolgoi produced 114,000 tonnes of copper in concentrates, 27 percent more than a year earlier. Production for the first nine months rose 29 percent. Rio Tinto said the increase reflected the continued ramp-up of underground operations, higher ore grades and improved recovery rates.

Consolidated copper production was 205,000 tonnes, unchanged from the third quarter of 2025 and 4 percent below the second quarter. The stronger Mongolian output offset weaker production at other operations. Rio Tinto retained its full-year copper guidance of 800,000 to 870,000 tonnes.

Iron ore supports the operating base

Global iron ore production reached 89.7 million tonnes in the quarter, up 2 percent year on year. Sales rose 3 percent to 90.8 million tonnes. Pilbara shipments increased 2 percent to 85.7 million tonnes, keeping the full-year Pilbara sales outlook at 323 million to 338 million tonnes.

The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea reached a production run-rate of 10 million tonnes per year on a 100 percent basis during the quarter. Rio Tinto said the project remains on track to reach a 60 million tonne annual run-rate in the second half of 2028. Lithium carbonate equivalent production increased 4 percent year on year to 13,000 tonnes, with full-year guidance maintained at 61,000 to 64,000 tonnes at the lower end of the range.

Rio Tinto Chief Executive Simon Trott said in the company's production release that the group delivered strong operational performance in the quarter. For investors, the figures show that project ramp-ups are becoming more important to the portfolio as mature assets face grade, maintenance and operating challenges.

Oyu Tolgoi remains the key watchpoint

Rio Tinto said a seismic event on October 29 caused a localised rockfall in a temporary storage zone next to the production area. Three employees were injured, but the company reported no structural impact to the cave or operating infrastructure. Underground operations were paused under safety procedures before a progressive restart began.

Before the incident, Oyu Tolgoi was running at an annualised rate of about 450,000 tonnes of copper in the quarter. Rio Tinto continues to target average recoverable copper production of about 500,000 tonnes per year from 2028 through 2036. The restart timetable and the mine's ability to sustain its ramp-up are therefore central to the share's operating case.

Rio Tinto stock traded at EUR 74.29 on Lang & Schwarz at 11:04 CET on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, 1.74 percent above the Xetra close of Tuesday, November 3. The real-time quote of Rio Tinto stock provides the latest market indication.

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More news and analyses on Rio Tinto stock will follow as the Oyu Tolgoi restart progresses and Rio Tinto updates investors on production performance.