Saab stock gets credit boost as S&P turns outlook positive

Saab's credit outlook improved on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, after S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on the Swedish defense group from stable to positive. The agency affirmed Saab's BBB+ rating and said an upgrade could follow within six to 12 months if the company continues to execute on its backlog, improve margins and keep leverage below its stated threshold.

Saab stock traded at 55.54 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 11:37:56 CET on Friday, November 13. The quote is an intraday indication and is presented without a direction against an Xetra close.

Higher forecasts reflect order momentum

S&P expects Saab's revenue to reach almost SEK 100 billion in 2026, compared with SEK 79 billion in 2025. The new 2026 forecast is SEK 10 billion above the agency's previous base case. Revenue could reach SEK 120 billion in 2027, implying more than 20 percent annual top-line growth for a fourth consecutive year.

The forecast rests on a SEK 364 billion order backlog at the end of the third quarter. S&P said the backlog provides revenue visibility for the next three to four years and highlighted demand for GlobalEye and Giraffe radar, the Gripen E program, German fleet renewal and Poland's submarine program.

Production expansion is central to the forecast. S&P expects Saab to increase GlobalEye output from approximately two aircraft per year to six by around 2030. It also expects annual Gripen production capacity to rise from 15 aircraft to 25 to 30.

Cash generation remains a rating factor

S&P expects adjusted free operating cash flow of SEK 5 billion to SEK 6 billion in both 2026 and 2027. It attributed the expected improvement to advance payments on submarine and aircraft orders, higher volumes, a better product mix and operating efficiencies.

The positive outlook is conditional rather than a rating upgrade. S&P said Saab would need to deliver its backlog, improve margins to about 15 percent and keep adjusted debt to EBITDA well below 1.5 times. The agency also expects management to maintain a net cash position and does not include major debt-funded acquisitions in its base case.

Execution remains the investor test

For investors, the revised outlook strengthens the credit backdrop around Saab's expansion, but it also raises the importance of production capacity, delivery timing and cash conversion. S&P noted that Saab remains smaller than several rated aerospace and defense peers and that the Swedish government represented about 41 percent of sales in 2025, although 79 percent of the existing backlog was international at the latest assessment.

The next focus is execution of the backlog and the resulting effect on revenue growth, margins and leverage. The rating agency could lower its assessment if operational problems weaken profitability or cash generation, or if financial policy becomes more aggressive.

The broader Swedish market context is covered in current OMXS30 market reports.

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