Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., KR7005930003

Samsung Electronics stock faces 2028 profit risk as Morgan Stanley cuts target

Published on 11/10/2026 at 16:49 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Samsung Electronics stock faces a lower Morgan Stanley target as the bank flags a possible memory earnings cliff after 2028. The rating remains Overweight.

Key points for investors

Morgan Stanley sees stronger Samsung earnings in 2027 but greater memory-market risks after 2028.
The bank expects rising chip supply and slower data-center construction to pressure long-term profitability.
Samsung remains Morgan Stanley's preferred semiconductor stock despite the lower target price.

Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., KR7005930003, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Samsung Electronics faces a lower valuation target after Morgan Stanley warned that the memory-chip cycle could lose momentum after 2028. The investment bank still expects stronger earnings next year and kept its Overweight rating, according to Chosun Biz on Tuesday, November 10.

Target cut highlights later-cycle risk

Morgan Stanley reduced its Samsung Electronics target price by about 19 percent, from 381,000 won to 309,000 won. The report, released on Monday, November 9, also lowered its target for Samsung Electronics preferred shares and reflected concern that new production capacity could ease the current memory shortage from late 2027.

The bank expects roughly 5 gigawatts of data-center projects scheduled for 2028 to move into 2029. If chip output rises while construction slows, supply could catch up with demand more quickly, putting pressure on memory prices and margins.

Near-term earnings still look stronger

Morgan Stanley raised its 2027 Samsung operating-profit forecast by 9 percent. It nevertheless lowered its estimate for Samsung's HBM operating margin in 2027 and 2028 to 65 to 72 percent from about 80 percent, citing additional supply, Chinese competition and a potentially slower AI infrastructure buildout.

The analysis also points to a more favorable competitive position for Samsung in the near term. TrendForce expects Samsung's HBM market share to reach about 39 percent next year, ahead of SK hynix at 37 percent, while Morgan Stanley said Samsung could regain share and generate earnings beyond semiconductors.