Telefonica stock faces results test as Renta 4 sees moderate growth

Published on 11/10/2026 at 18:27 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Telefonica stock enters a key results week with Renta 4 expecting moderate third-quarter growth. Spain and Brazil are set to support operations.

Growth, debt and Thursday's test

Renta 4 expects Telefónica to report moderate third-quarter growth while maintaining its 2026 targets.
Spain and Brazil are expected to support operations, while Germany remains the main drag.
Investors will focus on guidance, cash generation, debt and Virgin Media O2 at the November 12 presentation.

Telefonica, ES0178430E18, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Telefónica approaches its third-quarter results with expectations for moderate growth and unchanged 2026 targets. A preview by Bolsamania on Tuesday, November 10, citing Renta 4 analyst Iván San Félix, points to a mixed regional performance ahead of the group's November 12 results.

Telefonica stock traded at 3.43 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 18:16 CET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, 0.59 percent above the Xetra close of Monday, November 9.

Moderate growth ahead

Renta 4 forecasts year-on-year revenue growth of 3 percent and underlying EBITDA growth of 2 percent for the third quarter. Both estimates are below the consensus assumptions cited in the preview, which are 4 percent for revenue and 5 percent for underlying EBITDA.

Reported EBITDA is forecast at 3.067 billion euros, compared with consensus of 3.095 billion euros. The reported figure is expected to include a capital gain from the sale of Telefónica's Gran Vía headquarters, making the distinction between reported and underlying performance important for investors.

Spain and Brazil offset Germany

Spain is expected to maintain positive commercial momentum. Brazil is forecast to deliver double-digit growth in revenue and underlying EBITDA, with the Brazilian real contributing an estimated 7 percent currency effect.

Germany remains the main operational drag, although the negative impact is expected to ease after customer transfers to 1&1 and an improvement in handset sales. Renta 4 also expects operating cash flow of 1.369 billion euros on investment of 1.002 billion euros, excluding spectrum.

Guidance is the next test

The November 12 presentation at 10:00 CET is expected to provide the next confirmation of Telefónica's 2026 guidance. Investors will also watch net debt, Brazil, possible joint satellite-spectrum purchases, Starlink competition, Virgin Media O2 in the United Kingdom and further asset monetization.