State Bank of India stock: SBI trims December hike call to 25 bps
Published on 11/13/2026 at 02:30 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWSRate outlook shifts for December
- SBI Research lowered its expected December RBI rate increase to 25 basis points from 50 basis points.
- The research unit cited easing rupee pressure, stronger foreign inflows and improved external conditions.
- It sees a 50:50 chance that the December move will be the final hike in the current cycle.
- Inflation is expected to remain above 6 percent in November before moderating.
State Bank of India's Economic Research Department has lowered its forecast for the Reserve Bank of India's December rate increase, pointing to easing pressure on the rupee and stronger foreign capital inflows. The change was reported by The Economic Times on Thursday, November 12, 2026.
SBI sees a smaller RBI move
SBI Research now expects a 25-basis-point increase at the December policy meeting, compared with its earlier 50-basis-point projection. The report said improved external conditions, renewed foreign fund inflows and reduced pressure on the Indian rupee had shifted the balance of probabilities.
The research unit put the chance of the December increase being the final hike in the current cycle at 50:50. It also said the terminal repo rate could reach 5.75 percent. The RBI raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent in October, its first increase in almost four years.
Inflation remains the central risk
SBI Research expects Indian inflation to stay above 6 percent in November before easing. It cited early November price trends from the Department of Consumer Affairs and said expectations of three or four consecutive rate increases now appear to be an outlier.
The report also pointed to lower money-market pressure and foreign institutional inflows of 7.65 billion US dollars since November 6. For lenders, the revised path would imply a less aggressive near-term rate cycle, although elevated inflation and currency volatility remain important risks for funding costs and credit demand.
India's largest commercial bank
State Bank of India describes itself as India's largest commercial bank by assets, deposits, branches and employees. The bank operates through a broad commercial-banking platform and publishes financial results, ratings, Basel disclosures and shareholder information through its investor-relations operation.
SBI's scale gives it a broad exposure to Indian credit conditions, while the RBI's policy path remains a key macroeconomic factor for the banking sector. The company's investor-relations page is available at State Bank of India.
State Bank of India at a glance
- Company: State Bank of India
- ISIN: INE062A01020
- Business: Commercial banking
- Research focus: December RBI rate outlook, inflation and capital flows
Indian equities remain sensitive to interest-rate expectations, inflation and foreign portfolio flows; investors can follow the BSE Sensex market environment for the broader domestic backdrop.
