Sumco stock carries a UBS Buy upgrade and JPY 4,000 target

Sumco stock (ISIN JP3322930003) carries a JPY 4,000 price target after UBS Securities moved its rating from Neutral to Buy on September 30, 2026, according to MINKABU. The target lies 8.6 percent above Sumco's JPY 3,684 price on October 7, giving the analyst action a measurable valuation gap.

UBS shifts from Neutral to Buy

The UBS action was based on the view that Sumco's medium-term earnings potential had been undervalued, while the reported industry outlook and company forecasts were unchanged, MINKABU reported on September 30, 2026.

The same report cited a possible increase in 12-inch wafer prices in fiscal year 2028 as part of the longer-term case for Sumco. That thesis contrasts with the company's current earnings profile, where higher depreciation and operating costs continue to weigh on profitability.

Consensus target stays above the quote

A consensus compiled by Moomoo on September 29, 2026 covered 16 analysts. Its average target was JPY 3,886.25, with a high of JPY 5,500 and a low of JPY 1,440.

The average target lies 5.5 percent above the October 7 price. The rating mix was 50.0 percent Buy or Strong Buy, 31.25 percent Hold, 6.25 percent Underperform and 12.5 percent Sell, showing a divided view despite the positive UBS revision.

Q3 guidance tests the recovery

Sumco's Q2 FY2026 sales reached JPY 113.6 billion, exceeding its JPY 112 billion forecast by JPY 1.6 billion, while the EBITDA margin was 26.9 percent against a 26.0 percent forecast, according to the Yahoo Finance transcript of the August 6, 2026 results briefing.

The same briefing put first-half sales at JPY 215 billion, but operating profit was negative JPY 6.3 billion and net loss attributable to owners of the parent was negative JPY 12.8 billion. For Q3 FY2026, Sumco forecast sales of JPY 118 billion, operating profit at break-even and an EBITDA margin of 28.6 percent.

Management also said 300 mm wafer shipments exceeded 8 million wafers per month in Q2, while customer demand for leading-edge logic and memory was supported by AI data center investment. The operating question is whether higher utilization can offset the depreciation burden as new facilities ramp.

Sumco stock stays below its yearly high

Sumco stock was last at JPY 3,684 on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on October 7, 2026 at 3:30 p.m. JST, down 1.07 percent from the prior close. The 52-week range was JPY 1,131 to JPY 5,939, while market capitalization stood at JPY 1.3 trillion.

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