TELUS stock falls as S&P Global cuts outlook on leverage and guidance

TELUS Corporation stock (ISIN CA87971M1032) is under renewed pressure after S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on the Canadian telecom to stable from positive on September 21, 2026, highlighting rising leverage and a weaker financial trajectory into 2026.

Outlook cut and guidance reset weigh on TELUS

According to Investing.com on September 21, 2026, S&P Global Ratings affirmed TELUS Corp.'s BBB- issuer credit rating but cut the outlook to stable from positive, citing management’s revised guidance that implies higher leverage than previously expected.

The Vancouver-based telecommunications provider now guides for fiscal 2026 revenue to be flat to down 2 percent compared with the prior year, signalling a clear slowdown versus historical growth patterns.Investing.com TELUS simultaneously projects a 2 to 4 percent decline in EBITDA in 2026, underscoring margin and earnings pressure versus the prior year.

The company also now expects capital expenditure of about CAD 2.6 billion in 2026, a meaningful increase against its lower prior assumptions, while free operating cash flow is guided to around CAD 1.8 billion, significantly lower than earlier expectations.Investing.com S&P Global now anticipates TELUS will exit 2026 with leverage of about 4.0 times and 3.8 times in 2027, compared with its earlier assumption of roughly 3.75 times for 2026, reflecting the combination of softer earnings and higher investment spending.Investing.com

Dividend cut and valuation concerns shape analyst sentiment

Beyond the outlook change, TELUS’s recent dividend reduction remains a central factor for income-focused investors. As The Globe and Mail reported on September 21, 2026, TELUS reset its quarterly dividend on July 31, 2026 from CAD 0.4184 per share to CAD 0.1875 per share, a reduction of roughly 55 percent and a clear signal of management’s focus on balance-sheet flexibility.

The same analysis notes that TELUS shares closed at CAD 12.47 on September 17, 2026 on the Toronto Stock Exchange, roughly 50 percent below the stock’s all-time high of CAD 25.60, illustrating how sharply the valuation has compressed as leverage and growth concerns mounted.The Globe and Mail For investors, the combination of a halved share price and a materially reduced dividend underlines how the market has repriced TELUS’s risk-return profile.

The Globe and Mail further cites aggregated analyst data showing that, according to CanTechLetter, TELUS currently carries two Buy ratings, 12 Hold ratings and nine Sell ratings, with a consensus target of CAD 17.18, while BMO Capital’s Tim Casey maintained a Hold rating on September 15, 2026 with a CAD 15.00 price target.The Globe and Mail The consensus target of CAD 17.18 implies upside of around 37.7 percent from the CAD 12.47 close on September 17, 2026, but the sizeable number of Sell recommendations underscores that sentiment remains cautious despite that potential upside.

Technical pressure on the TSX listing

Technically, TELUS shares have been trading under persistent downward pressure on the Toronto Stock Exchange. A technical overview from Traders Union dated September 21, 2026 notes that TELUS (ticker T) was recently priced at CAD 12.23, representing a modest decline from the previous trading session, and trading below key moving averages.

The same technical analysis highlights that the stock is below the 20-day moving average at CAD 12.41, the 50-day moving average at CAD 12.56 and well under the 200-day moving average at CAD 16.67, indicating a pronounced longer-term downtrend.Traders Union With support identified near CAD 11.98 and resistance around CAD 12.46, the analysis suggests that a sustained break below support could trigger further losses, while a move above resistance might permit only a modest recovery.

For investors watching the chart, the combination of fundamental downgrades and technical weakness paints a challenging picture: leverage is expected to stay elevated into 2026, cash flow guidance has been cut, and the share price remains compressed well below historical highs, with the stock trading beneath all major moving averages.

TELUS stock price and upcoming earnings date

On the New York Stock Exchange, TELUS Corporation’s American listing (ticker TU) most recently closed at USD 16.82, with an opening price of USD 16.86 in the following session, as of a late September 2026 quote snapshot; this level sits markedly below the CAD 25.60 all-time high reported for the Canadian listing.Yahoo Finance The compressed price versus past peaks mirrors the cautious outlook from credit and equity analysts.

Looking ahead, the next key fundamental checkpoint for TELUS stock will be its upcoming quarterly earnings. A calendar overview from Zacks updated on September 9, 2026 indicates that TELUS is expected to report results for the quarter ending September 2026, with a consensus earnings estimate of USD 0.12 per share.

Zacks notes that its consensus projection for TELUS is USD 0.12 per share for that September 2026 quarter and expects the company to deliver earnings broadly in line with this estimate, placing investor attention on whether management further adjusts guidance, capital expenditure or cash flow targets around the print.Zacks Against the backdrop of S&P Global’s revised outlook and TELUS’s own downbeat 2026 guidance, the earnings release is likely to be a pivotal moment for reassessing both leverage and dividend sustainability.

Fact box: TELUS Corporation stock at a glance

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