The Trade Desk stock falls as S&P 500 removal and weak guidance deepen selloff

The Trade Desk stock (ISIN US88688T1007) is trading near multi-year lows around USD 13.9 as of September 18, 2026, after heavy selling tied to its removal from the S&P 500 index and a string of cautious analyst downgrades.

Index exit puts Trade Desk stock under pressure

As of September 18, 2026, The Trade Desk closed at USD 13.92 on Nasdaq, down 2.4% on the day and about 63.3% year-to-date from roughly USD 38 at the start of 2026, according to a brief from Pomegra.

According to Pomegra on September 21, 2026, S&P 500 index funds sold an estimated USD 680 million worth of Trade Desk shares to implement the index removal, equal to roughly six times the stock's average daily dollar volume.

The same overview notes that Trade Desk's market capitalization has fallen to about USD 6.6 billion, down from a peak of roughly USD 65 billion in December 2024, underlining how sharply the valuation has compressed over the past two years.

Fundamentals: growth slows and margins compress

Recent fundamentals show that the growth engine has cooled markedly. As summarized by Pomegra, Trade Desk's revenue in the second quarter of 2026 grew only 3 percent year over year, compared with 25 percent growth a year earlier in the comparable quarter.

According to an analysis on September 21, 2026 from Seeking Alpha, Trade Desk's second-quarter 2026 revenue rose by about 3 percent year over year while EBITDA margin fell to around 34 percent, sharply missing prior expectations and reflecting pressure from macro headwinds and intensifying competition.

In addition, guidance for the third quarter of 2026 points to the first revenue decline since Trade Desk's IPO, according to a separate September 21, 2026 downgrade article on Seeking Alpha, which highlights continued revenue and EBITDA declines as a key concern.

Analysts grow cautious on Trade Desk stock

Several recent analyst and investor notes have turned more cautious on Trade Desk stock. On September 21, 2026, one detailed piece on Seeking Alpha downgraded the stock to a neutral stance, citing shrinking margins, macro headwinds and eroding competitive advantages as reasons why near-term upside appears limited.

Another analysis published on September 21, 2026 by Seeking Alpha reiterated a sell rating, arguing that Trade Desk faces accelerating revenue contraction and rising platform operating expenses, with earnings projected to decline through fiscal year 2027 despite a cash pile of around USD 1.5 billion and positive free cash flow.

At the same time, a September 21, 2026 article on The Motley Fool noted that Trade Desk's stock is trading around USD 14, about 90 percent below the record high set in December 2024, and highlighted that revenue growth slowed to 14 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 and to 12 percent in the first quarter of 2026.

Cash generation contrasts with share price decline

Despite the sharp share price decline, Trade Desk continues to generate substantial cash. According to The Motley Fool on September 21, 2026, the company produced USD 419 million of free cash flow in the first half of 2026, underscoring that the business remains cash generative even as growth slows.

A separate long-term performance review from Trefis on September 21, 2026 calculated that over the last five years Trade Desk handed shareholders about USD 2.5 billion in cash, equal to roughly 38 percent of the company's current market value, yet the stock still delivered a total return of negative 81 percent over that period.

For investors, the contrast between strong cash generation and deep share price losses is central: Trade Desk can fund operations and buybacks, but the market currently assigns a far lower valuation multiple than at its December 2024 peak.

Stock trades near new lows

Per recent Nasdaq-centered quote snapshots cited by Pomegra, Trade Desk shares around September 18, 2026 were changing hands near USD 13.92 on Nasdaq, markedly below their December 2024 high and consistent with the roughly 83 percent decline from the peak referenced in that brief.

The same data set shows year-to-date performance of about negative 63.3 percent as of September 18, 2026, placing the stock considerably below both its earlier S&P 500-era valuation and the levels typical for larger ad-tech peers.

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