Adidas Rally Hits Technical Snag Despite Three Catalysts and Strong Q1 Fundamentals

Adidas shares surged 7.4% over the past week, breaking above their 200-day moving average for the first time since March 2025. Yet the rally’s technical conviction remains ambiguous: the stock touched 170.30 euros intraday on Friday — a 13-week high — but closed at 167.35 euros, failing to confirm the breakout with a settlement above that level. The result is a powerful weekly gain that leaves chart watchers waiting for a cleaner signal.

Three distinct catalysts converged to drive the advance. The first was the launch of an exclusive capsule collection with Deichmann, Europe’s largest shoe retailer. The 24-model lineup of sneakers, slides and accessories rolled out on Monday across more than 4,600 stores worldwide, placing Adidas in an accessible price segment just ahead of the World Cup. The second catalyst came from CEO Bjørn Gulden, who told the annual general meeting that there is a “very good chance” Adidas could receive a tariff refund of roughly 300 million euros after a US Supreme Court ruling on emergency tariffs. The third was the solid first-quarter earnings report that had already set a constructive tone.

Adding to the momentum, Bank of America analyst Thierry Cota upgraded Adidas on May 28 from “Underperform” to “Neutral,” arguing that the slowdown in growth would be less severe than feared and that the sluggish industry environment was already priced in. Cota simultaneously downgraded rival Puma to “Underperform,” highlighting Adidas’s relatively stronger rebound potential.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Adidas?

The first-quarter results provided the fundamental foundation for the move. Group revenue rose 14% on a currency-adjusted basis to 6.59 billion euros, while operating profit climbed 16% to 705 million euros. Earnings per share of 2.72 euros beat consensus estimates by roughly 6%. The direct-to-consumer channel was particularly strong, with revenue up 22% and online sales jumping 25%. Apparel led category growth with a 31% currency-adjusted gain, followed by accessories (+13%) and footwear (+4%). The performance segment, driven by football, running and training, expanded 29%. However, gross margin contracted to 51.1% from 52.1% a year earlier, pressured by unfavorable currency moves and higher US tariffs. The operating margin still improved to 10.7% as operating profit outpaced revenue growth.

On the valuation side, Adidas trades at an estimated price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8 for 2026 — modest compared with Nike’s 29.9, especially as Nike struggles with weaker growth. Puma shares have gained roughly 33% year-to-date, while Adidas has recovered about 28% from its April low of 130.60 euros. Even after the rally, the stock remains 24% below its 52-week high of 219.80 euros, leaving room for further upside. The analyst consensus target stands at approximately 202 euros, with Jefferies at 190 euros and Bernstein Research at 245 euros with an “Outperform” rating. The relative strength index at 63.6 indicates the stock is neither overbought nor oversold.

The upcoming World Cup in the US, Canada and Mexico — starting in less than two weeks — offers a potential additional tailwind. Adidas is outfitting 14 national teams, including defending champion Argentina, co-host Mexico and Spain. The company’s full-year operating profit target of around 2.3 billion euros remains ambitious, with tariffs and currency headwinds still in play.

Technically, the next resistance sits at 171.20 euros. A clean close above that level, according to XTB, could open the path to 186.40 euros. On the downside, the reclaimed 200-day moving average at 159.35 euros and a gap zone near 157.50 euros provide support. The immediate test for bulls is whether the stock can close above the intraday peak of 170.30 euros in the coming week. The next major fundamental checkpoint arrives on July 30, when Adidas reports second-quarter results — the first real test of whether World Cup momentum has translated into measurable sales acceleration.

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