Allianz Shares Hit Fresh Record as Analyst Targets Stretch from €390 to €684
Published on 07/05/2026 at 04:54 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The Allianz share price scaled a new 52-week peak of €421.40 last Friday, but the celebration is far from unanimous. The stock closed the session at €418.70, leaving it just 0.64% shy of that pinnacle, while analyst opinions on its fair value span a staggering €300 range. Berenberg’s €684 target suggests 67% upside from current levels, but UBS sees the stock worth only €390, and RBC Capital Markets puts it at €400. Even Goldman Sachs, the most bullish of the more conservative houses, pegs fair value at €450. The consensus average of roughly €424 offers only a wafer-thin premium above the current price, highlighting the fraught debate over whether the shares have run too far, too fast.
The technical narrative reads like a textbook cautionary tale. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 77.6, deep in overbought territory for a DAX heavyweight. The stock now trades 7.7% above its 50-day moving average of €388.78 and 11.66% above the 200-day line of €374.98. Since the 52-week trough of €334.90 on 1 August 2025, the shares have recovered more than 25%. While the 30-day annualized volatility of 13.74% suggests the climb has been orderly rather than speculative, the sheer distance from the key averages — nearly eight percentage points above the 50-day and twelve above the 200-day — historically foreshadows a period of consolidation or even a sharp pullback.
Fundamentals, however, provide a robust counterweight. The insurer delivered a record first-quarter result and reaffirmed its full-year target for an operating profit of around €17.4 billion. Its Solvency II ratio improved by two percentage points to a healthy 221%. The capital position is further reinforced by a €2.5 billion share buyback programme announced on 25 February, launched on 13 March and set to run until the end of December 2026. The subsequent cancellation of repurchased shares will structurally lift earnings per share. For bulls like Berenberg’s Michael Huttner, who attended a recent investor event, the entire European composite insurance sector — Allianz, Axa, Generali and Zurich — remains undervalued, with a 2028 price-to-earnings multiple of around 12 that he argues should be closer to 20.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Allianz?
The next hard catalyst arrives on 7 August 2026, when Allianz publishes its half-year report. Until then, the stock must either digest its technical overextension through a sideways drift or a modest retreat, or prove the bears wrong by breaking decisively above €421.40. Crucially, the management did not raise its annual guidance on the back of the record quarter, a strategic restraint that tempers the upside fantasy. The 50-day line at roughly €389 serves as the first support; a close below that level would signal a deeper correction has begun. The August report will determine whether the board subsequently revises its profit forecast and, in turn, whether the bullish analyst camp — or the chartists warning of a correction — prevails.
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Allianz Stock: New Analysis - 5 July
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