Almonty Faces Triple Catalyst: Supply Crises in Japan and Korea, Pentagon Deadline, and Index Inclusion Converge
Published on 06/21/2026 at 17:46 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Almonty Industries is staring down a rare alignment of market forces this week that could reshape its valuation. Three separate catalysts — an index-driven buying wave, a supply collapse in Japan, and an approaching Pentagon procurement ban — are converging on a company that has rapidly transformed from a development-stage miner into a cash-generating producer.
The most immediate event is Almonty’s admission to the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indexes, effective Monday. That is no honorary tag. Passive funds tracking those benchmarks must buy the shares, with roughly $12.2 trillion in assets pegged to Russell indices. Analysts estimate the rebalancing could generate demand for around 13 million shares — triple the average daily trading volume. The stock closed the week at C$26.67, up nearly 8% in seven days and more than 120% since the start of the year.
But the index effect is only one piece of a broader puzzle. On July 1, Japan’s Kanto Denka and Central Glass will permanently halt production of tungsten hexafluoride, a gas essential for manufacturing the three- to seven-nanometer chips that power artificial intelligence. Japan supplies roughly one-quarter of global WF? output. The shutdown stems from Beijing’s tightened export controls on high-purity tungsten powder, which accounts for 60–70% of the gas’s production cost. Chinese exports of ammonium paratungstate have already collapsed from 782 tonnes to 243 tonnes year-over-year.
The Pentagon adds its own pressure. Starting in January 2027, the US Department of Defense is banned from purchasing Chinese tungsten. The problem is acute: America has operated no tungsten mine since 2015, and China controls about 88% of global production.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Almonty has positioned itself as the Western answer. Its flagship Sangdong mine in South Korea’s Yeongwol County is already in Phase 1, processing 640,000 tonnes of ore annually to yield around 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. The average ore grade of 0.51% WO? is roughly three times the global average. Phase 2, slated for 2027, will double capacity to 1.2 million tonnes and 4,600 tonnes of concentrate — enough to cover nearly 40% of non-Chinese tungsten demand.
But Sangdong is not a one-metal story. Almonty is simultaneously advancing a molybdenum drilling program at the same site, with 37% of the planned 26 holes and 12,000 metres already completed. Results have confirmed historical grades. The urgency comes from South Korea itself: the country relies on China for over 90% of its molybdenum needs, and national stockpiles are running low. The government has issued public notices urging private companies to secure their own supplies.
Almonty has locked in an exclusive offtake deal with SeAH M&S, the world’s second-largest molybdenum oxide smelter and South Korea’s biggest processor. The contract covers 100% of production for the mine’s entire life and includes a floor price of US$19.00 per pound before treatment charges — a built-in earnings buffer. SeAH M&S also operates the only molybdenum roaster in Asia outside China. Production is expected to begin by the end of 2026, with an annual capacity of roughly 5,600 tonnes and a projected mine life of 60 years based on historical government data.
The company is packaging tungsten, molybdenum, and a planned tungsten oxide plant as the “Korean Trinity” — a fully integrated value chain for strategic minerals.
Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Financially, Almonty has the runway to execute. First-quarter 2026 revenue surged 221% to C$25.4 million, while adjusted EBITDA swung from a loss of C$2.4 million to a gain of C$6.1 million. Cash stood at C$259.9 million at the end of March. In early June, the company placed convertible notes totaling US$800 million — including full exercise of a US$100 million greenshoe — maturing in 2031 with a 2.25% coupon. Net proceeds are approximately US$772.7 million.
The stock remains 20% below its 52-week high of C$33.35, with the 50-day moving average at C$27.21 acting as an immediate hurdle. The relative strength index of 53 suggests the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. With annualized 30-day volatility near 99%, moves in either direction could be sharp. The next few days will test whether the Russell flows and supply-side shocks can push Almonty past that technical resistance.
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