Almonty Hits Tungsten Concentrate at Sangdong; Analyst Lifts Target to $33 While Director Trims Stake
Published on 07/12/2026 at 08:54 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The intersection of operational progress and insider behavior rarely creates such a clear split screen as it did for Almonty Industries last week. The tungsten producer saw its shares surge 12.4% on Friday to close at C$23.38 — a gain fueled by a dramatic price target increase from DA Davidson, even as a director sold a C$4.8 million stake in the company just days earlier.
The stock has now advanced 94% year-to-date and more than 200% over the past twelve months, reflecting the market’s revaluation of Almonty as it transitions from developer to revenue-generating miner. Yet the C$33-per-share target from DA Davidson’s Matt Summerville — raised from C$25 on July 10 — still implies roughly 41% upside from current levels, assuming execution holds.
Mine Milestone and Analyst Upgrades Converge
Summerville’s upgrade followed a virtual roadshow with founder and CEO Lewis Black, after which the analyst cited “positive progress” at the flagship Sangdong mine in South Korea. The key catalyst: Almonty began feeding stockpiled ore through the newly commissioned processing plant in June, producing saleable tungsten concentrate for the first time. It had ended the first quarter with roughly 120,000 tonnes of stockpiled ore averaging 0.24% tungsten trioxide — material now being converted into revenue.
The shift from construction to processing is expected to stabilise output, broaden the earnings base, and improve cash flow as operations ramp up. Bank of America Securities also reiterated its buy recommendation on Almonty in the same week, adding to the wave of analyst optimism that has built since the processing plant went live on July 1.
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The backdrop of record tungsten prices — which have roughly tenfolded since early 2025 — provides an additional tailwind. Almonty’s largest shareholder, the Plansee Group, this month confirmed its long-term offtake agreement from Sangdong, underscoring industrial demand behind the tungsten boom. Plansee’s recently published annual report showed revenue of €2.35 billion and explicitly reaffirmed the supply deal.
Insider Sale Puts a Dent in the Narrative
Against this broadly bullish landscape, the decision by director Mark Trachuk to sell 200,000 common shares on July 2 — at C$24.07 each for total proceeds of C$4.814 million — introduced a note of caution. The transaction reduced Trachuk’s stake by 7.4% and was filed through Canadian insider reporting channels in the same week Sangdong reached its operational milestone.
A separate batch of equity-based compensation was also granted to three directors on July 1, including Trachuk, Daniel D’Amato, and Gustave F. Perna. These involved deferred share units and restricted share unit conversions, all non-cash in nature, and did not offset the impression left by Trachuk’s open-market disposal.
Convertible Overhang and Cash Burn Remain Risks
Analysts, however, are more focused on the structural dilution risk from Almonty’s convertible note issuance in June than on individual insider transactions. The company placed C$800 million in 2.25% convertible notes due 2031 — the full greenshoe exercised by the underwriting syndicate — at an initial conversion price of approximately US$27.40 per share, well above the current trading level.
Conversion would materially dilute equity, while accounting treatment of embedded derivatives could cause volatility in reported earnings. More immediately, Almonty continues to burn cash at a high rate during the ramp-up phase, leaving it reliant on fresh financing and vulnerable to a growing debt burden if the production ramp fails to generate sustainable profits quickly.
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The market’s sensitivity to these cross-currents is evident in the stock’s extreme 30-day annualised volatility of almost 97%. Even after Friday’s surge, the shares remain nearly 30% below their 52-week high of C$33.35 reached in April. The 50-day moving average sits at C$25.40, roughly 7.9% above Friday’s close, while the relative strength index at 48.0 hovers near neutral territory.
Execution Will Decide the Next Leg
With DA Davidson’s near-doubling of its price target within weeks, the focus now shifts entirely to operational delivery. Can Sangdong convert its stockpiled ore into consistent concentrate shipments? The first production data and shipping updates will be scrutinised by investors trying to gauge whether the gap between the current share price and the C$33 target can be closed.
The long-term strategic case remains intact: Western tungsten demand is tightening, Almonty’s Sangdong mine is among the few large-scale sources outside China, and the Plansee offtake provides revenue visibility. But the convertible overhang and ongoing cash consumption will keep the stock in two-way trade until the ramp-up is complete.
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