Almonty Industries: A Capital and Production Inflection Point
Published on 04/20/2026 at 20:22 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The coming weeks will test the market's lofty valuation of Almonty Industries, a tungsten producer at the center of a global supply crunch. With a stock that has surged approximately 162% year-to-date to trade around 31.50 CAD, the company faces a dual catalyst period: a mandated reverse stock split and the first public production figures from its flagship mine.
Capital Structure Overhaul
A significant corporate action is imminent. Almonty's management must finalize the details of an approved share consolidation by April 30. This reverse split will drastically reduce the number of outstanding shares, a move often seen as an effort to boost per-share pricing and appeal to a broader base of institutional investors. The strategy appears to be gaining traction, with the number of institutional holders jumping 55% last quarter to 107 funds. Notably, Van Eck Associates now holds a stake valued at roughly $99 million.
Sangdong Mine: The Operational Core
The fundamental driver behind the investor interest is the Sangdong mine in South Korea, which commenced operations in mid-March. Its processing plant officially opened on April 1. This marks the country's first domestic tungsten production in over three decades. The mine's ore grade, averaging 0.51% tungsten trioxide, is triple the global average. Its initial capacity is set at about 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, with full production expected by the second quarter of 2026.
All eyes are on May 21, when Almonty will release its quarterly report containing the first concrete production data from Sangdong's ramp-up phase. Subsequently, at the annual meeting on June 8, management plans to outline details for a Phase-2 expansion. This project aims to double annual capacity to 1.2 million tonnes by 2027, for which the company has cash reserves of approximately $268 million.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Geopolitical Tailwinds and Demand
Almonty's strategic value is magnified by severe supply constraints. Japanese suppliers have warned Samsung and SK Hynix that their stocks of tungsten hexafluoride—a critical gas for chip etching—could be depleted by June 2026. Furthermore, Beijing's decision to slash tungsten export quotas in late 2025 has ignited prices. The benchmark APT price has skyrocketed 534% year-over-year to $2,250 per metric tonne unit and shows momentum toward $3,000. China, Russia, and North Korea collectively control an estimated 95% of global supply.
This dynamic has led to direct US government support. Washington has explicitly exempted Almonty's tungsten ores, concentrates, and oxides from reciprocal tariffs, securing the supply chain for its US partner, Global Tungsten & Powders. A firm offtake agreement with Tungsten Parts Wyoming also guarantees monthly delivery of at least 40 tonnes of tungsten oxide to the US defense sector. This aligns with a mandate effective January 1, 2027, requiring US defense contractors to source tungsten from non-Chinese suppliers.
Financials and Analyst Sentiment
The company reported a net loss of nearly 162 million CAD for the past fiscal year on slightly higher revenues. Management attributes the loss primarily to non-cash accounting adjustments triggered by the sharp rise in its own share price. Analyst coverage remains bullish. Texas Capital recently initiated coverage with a "Strong Buy" rating, joining DA Davidson (Buy, $25.00 target), Oppenheimer (raised target to $19.00), and B. Riley Financial (target of $23.00). The current share price trades above these targets, reflecting high expectations.
Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Parallel development continues at the Gentung-Browns-Lake project in Montana, slated to begin production in the second half of 2026. This would mark the first domestic US tungsten production in over a decade. For now, the market's focus is squarely on the execution at Sangdong and the impending reshaping of the company's equity structure.
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