Almonty Industries: A Convertable Cushion, a Russell Lift, and a 60-Year Molybdenum Offtake Lock
Published on 06/29/2026 at 16:18 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The stars are aligning for Almonty Industries, but the market isn't quite convinced yet. The Canadian miner's Sangdong site in South Korea is rapidly transforming into a dual-metal juggernaut, with tungsten flowing since March and molybdenum drilling running hot. The stock, however, sits 31% below its April peak — even as index funds begin to pile in.
Almonty officially joined the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 today, forcing any fund tracking those benchmarks to hold the shares. That structural demand arrives just as the company's Q1 numbers land: revenue hit $25.4 million, a 221% surge year-over-year, while EBITDA swung from a $2.4 million loss to a $6.1 million profit. Operating cash flow stood at $9.7 million.
But the real anchor is the molybdenum side. Almonty struck an exclusive offtake agreement with SeAH M&S, South Korea’s largest molybdenum processor and the world’s second-biggest moly oxide smelter. The deal covers 100% of Sangdong’s future moly production for the entire life of the mine — pegged by historical data at 60 years. A hard floor price of $19.00 per pound guarantees Almonty a steady revenue base once production begins at the end of 2026. At full tilt, Sangdong will push out roughly 5,600 tonnes of molybdenum annually.
The timing is no accident. South Korea has declared a molybdenum supply crisis, with the government publicly urging private companies to build domestic sources. China’s export restrictions on the metal have rattled global supply chains, and the spot price for molybdenum has climbed about 25% over the past year. Almonty’s drilling program is already validating the play: about 37% of 26 holes — some 12,000 metres in total — are in the bag, and grades are matching historical records. Two-thirds of the program remains to be completed, with each subsequent result potentially nudging sentiment higher.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Next door, the tungsten side is giving Almonty a formidable second leg. The Sangdong tungsten mine, restarted in March 2026 after more than three decades of hibernation, is now processing roughly 640,000 tonnes of ore a year and producing about 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. The ore grade runs at 0.51% tungsten trioxide — roughly three times the global average. Phase 2, slated for 2027, could more than double capacity to 1.2 million tonnes of ore and 4,600 tonnes of concentrate. At full stride, Sangdong alone might cover around 40% of non-Chinese tungsten demand.
That demand is about to get a jolt from the Pentagon. From January 1, 2027, the US Department of Defense will be banned from buying tungsten from China, Russia, Iran, or North Korea. China controls about 88% of global tungsten production, and its APT deliveries have already collapsed from 782 tonnes to 243 tonnes year-over-year. The result is a price explosion: North American tungsten hit $34.17 per kilogram in Q1 2026, up 76.6% from $19.35 a year earlier. Investment bank CICC estimates the global supply gap will exceed 17% of demand through 2028.
Management calls the combination of tungsten and molybdenum at Sangdong the "Korean trinity" — and the operational synergies are real. The two deposits sit adjacent, allowing shared infrastructure and lower costs.
To fund the ramp-up, Almonty placed $700 million in convertible notes in early June, carrying a 2.25% coupon and maturing in 2031. The deal was oversubscribed. The company used part of the proceeds for capped-call transactions to limit dilution, though the risk isn't zero.
Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Despite all this, the share price has been a laggard. At C$23, the stock sits 14% below its 50-day moving average and 13% lower over the past week. The relative strength index reads 40.9 — not yet oversold but close. Yet year-to-date, the stock remains up more than 91%.
The market appears to be waiting for two things: a full mineral resource estimate from the molybdenum drilling, and a smooth operational run at the tungsten mine through year-end. With Russell funds now forced to hold the shares, the structural bid is in place. The question is whether the operational proof can finally pull the stock price along for the ride.
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Almonty Stock: New Analysis - 29 June
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