Almonty Industries: A Strategic Pivot Amidst a Critical Supply Crunch

The clock is ticking for global semiconductor giants. Japanese suppliers have warned Samsung and SK Hynix that their stocks of tungsten hexafluoride—a gas essential for 3D NAND chip production—could be depleted by this summer. This looming shortage spotlights the strategic value of Almonty Industries, a tungsten producer whose flagship mine is poised to start commercial operations precisely as this crisis unfolds.

Almonty’s stock performance reflects this heightened strategic focus. Since the start of the year, its shares have surged nearly 145 percent, and over the past twelve months, they have skyrocketed almost 700 percent. Trading at 29.46 CAD, the stock hovers just three percent below its 52-week high. This investor enthusiasm is rooted in the company’s unique position as a non-Chinese supplier of a critical mineral. Tungsten is indispensable for defense applications, electronics, and aerospace, placing it at the heart of U.S. efforts to decouple supply chains from China.

The company’s operational strategy rests on two key projects. In South Korea, Phase 1 of the Sangdong mine is already operational, marking the country's first tungsten production in over three decades. The facility processes approximately 640,000 tonnes of ore annually to produce about 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. With an ore grade of 0.51% tungsten trioxide—triple the global average—and an expected mine life exceeding 45 years, Sangdong is a cornerstone asset. Its commercial production is slated for the second quarter of 2026, a timeline that aligns with the urgent industry need for new supply.

Parallel to this, the company is advancing its Panasqueira tungsten project in Portugal, which is scheduled to restart production later this year. Success at both sites would make Almonty one of the few Western tungsten producers with active operations on two continents.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

Financially, the company is in a period of transition. For the 2025 fiscal year, Almonty reported a net loss of 161.9 million CAD against revenue of 32.5 million CAD, which was 13 percent higher than the prior year. Management attributes the loss largely to non-cash accounting adjustments triggered by the sharp rise in its own share price. The company’s treasury remains robust with 268.4 million CAD in cash, bolstered by recent capital raises including an oversubscribed $90 million IPO and a subsequent $129 million financing round.

Looking ahead, analyst expectations are steep. Revenue for 2026 is projected to leap to 747.7 million CAD, driven by the ramp-up at Sangdong. An implied EBITDA of 488.1 million CAD would represent a margin of over 50 percent. These forecasts, however, are contingent on a smooth operational rollout.

A significant strategic move underpinning these ambitions is the relocation of Almonty’s corporate headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana. While this shift does not alter immediate cash flow projections or production timelines, it is a clear commitment to the U.S. supply chain. The move strengthens ties with defense contractors and industrial partners, a relationship further solidified by a long-term supply agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders in Pennsylvania. Notably, Almonty’s products—tungsten ore, concentrates, and oxides—are exempt from recent U.S. counter-tariffs, a critical advantage.

Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

This U.S. focus is timely. Starting January 1, 2027, U.S. defense contractors will be mandated to source tungsten exclusively from non-Chinese suppliers. Almonty is positioning itself directly for this requirement. The company also has an approved share consolidation of up to five-for-one that must be implemented by April 30, 2026, with the exact ratio and timing yet to be determined.

Investors await further details, which are likely to be presented at the Annual General Meeting on June 8. The agenda is expected to include specifics on a planned Phase 2 expansion at Sangdong. This project, targeting a 2027 start, would double processing capacity to 1.2 million tonnes of ore per year, significantly amplifying Almonty’s role in a tightening global market.

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