Almonty Industries: The $2,250-a-Tonne Catalyst for a Supply Chain Overhaul

A single metal, essential for stacking memory chips up to 200 layers high, is now at the heart of a looming summer crisis for global semiconductor giants. With China's severe export restrictions on tungsten biting deep, suppliers have warned Samsung and SK Hynix of imminent shortages of tungsten hexafluoride gas. This has propelled Canada's Almonty Industries, with its newly operational Sangdong mine in South Korea, from a mining story to a critical narrative of supply chain salvation.

The price action tells the story of a market in shock. The spot price for ammonium paratungstate (APT) skyrocketed 534% by mid-March 2026, reaching $2,250 per tonne. Rotterdam prices for tungsten metal have surged from around $900 per tonne at the start of the year to $3,190. This volatility underscores a stark geopolitical reality: China, Russia, and North Korea collectively control approximately 95% of global supply. Japan, which produces about a quarter of the world's tungsten hexafluoride, has seen its raw material pipeline from China constricted, with its inventories estimated to last only until June 2026.

Almonty's strategic response is unfolding on two continents. The crown jewel is the Sangdong mine, officially commissioned in March and designed to process 640,000 tonnes of ore annually. Its commercial start is slated for the second quarter of 2026, with Phase 1 targeting annual production of 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. A planned expansion to 1.2 million tonnes of ore processing in 2027 would double output to roughly 4,600 tonnes—enough to meet an estimated 40% of global tungsten demand outside China at full capacity.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

Concurrently, the company is advancing its North American foothold. The acquisition of the Gentung Browns Lake project in Montana aims to establish a U.S. production base by the second half of 2026. This timing aligns with a pivotal U.S. policy shift: the Department of Defense is set to ban Chinese tungsten from American defense programs starting January 2027. In a significant vote of confidence, the U.S. government has already exempted Almonty's tungsten ores, concentrates, and oxides from reciprocal tariffs, securing the economics of its supply agreement with U.S. processor Global Tungsten & Powders in Pennsylvania.

The financial markets are placing their bets on this dual-track strategy. Institutional interest has surged, with the number of funds holding Almonty stock jumping over 55% last quarter to 107. Major positions include Van ECK Associates' 11.2 million shares worth about $99 million, alongside new entrants Encompass Capital Advisors ($25.6 million) and Next Century Growth Investors ($16.3 million). Management conviction was demonstrated in early April when the company's chairman invested CAD 2.1 million at an average price of CAD 20.58.

Analysts have dramatically revised their outlooks. On April 9, GBC analysts raised their price target from CAD 9.00 to CAD 28.60, forecasting a revenue leap from CAD 32.5 million to CAD 747.7 million and EBITDA of CAD 488.1 million—a margin exceeding 50%. This optimistic projection follows a challenging fiscal 2025, where Almonty reported a net loss of CAD 161.9 million and saw administrative costs rise 231%. The company, however, bolstered its balance sheet with a December capital raise, leaving it with CAD 268.4 million in liquidity to fund its ramp-up.

The stock has already reflected much of this potential, gaining over 105% since the start of the year to trade around CAD 24.75. The coming months will deliver crucial validation points. The quarterly report in May will provide the first hard production data from Sangdong, followed by a shareholder meeting on June 8 with updates on the Phase 2 expansion. For a chip industry racing against a June inventory cliff, Almonty's success is no longer just an investment thesis—it's becoming a matter of operational necessity.

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