Almonty Industries: The Geopolitical Pinch Point for Global Chipmaking

A severe shortage of a critical mineral is threatening to halt semiconductor production lines by this summer, placing a little-known Canadian miner at the center of a high-stakes supply scramble. Asian suppliers have warned giants like Samsung and SK Hynix of impending shortfalls in tungsten hexafluoride, an essential process gas without which advanced chips cannot be made. This crisis, triggered by China's drastic export cuts of the raw material, has created a gap that Almonty Industries Inc. is now positioned to fill.

The company's Sangdong mine in South Korea, officially commissioned in March, is processing approximately 640,000 tonnes of ore annually. With industry stockpiles in the region expected to be depleted by June, Sangdong is rapidly becoming viewed as the only reliable non-Chinese alternative for Western-aligned chip manufacturers. The timing of its ramp-up is pivotal. Almonty plans the commercial launch for the second quarter of 2026, with Phase 1 targeting annual production of about 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate.

The root of the disruption is extreme geopolitical concentration. China, Russia, and North Korea collectively control roughly 95% of global tungsten supply. In response to U.S. tariffs, Beijing slashed its own exports at the end of 2025, sparking a historic price shock. The spot price for tungsten APT has skyrocketed by over 500% year-over-year to $2,250 per tonne.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

This fundamental shift is attracting major institutional interest. The number of institutional investors in Almonty surged by more than 55% last quarter. Van ECK Associates alone now holds a position worth approximately $99 million. Analysts are swiftly adjusting their models to account for both operational progress and soaring commodity prices. B. Riley Financial raised its target to $23.00 from $17.00, while DA Davidson initiated coverage with a $25.00 target. Oppenheimer increased its target to $19.00 from $16.00, maintaining an "Outperform" rating.

Beyond Sangdong, Almonty is opening a second strategic front. The company is integrating its newly acquired Gentung tungsten project in Montana, aiming to establish a North American production base. This move directly addresses a new U.S. Department of Defense mandate requiring American defense contractors to source tungsten exclusively from non-Chinese suppliers starting in January 2027.

Despite a significant rally over the past year, with the stock currently trading at 24.75 CAD—about 18% below its 52-week high—a substantial valuation gap persists. Independent analyses peg the fair value at around 46.30 CAD. GBC analysts recently raised their target to 28.60 CAD, citing a geopolitically driven "tungsten super-cycle." Market estimates project EBITDA could reach 260 million CAD this fiscal year, potentially soaring to 844 million CAD by 2027 upon completion of Sangdong's planned Phase 2 expansion. The company attributes its 2025 net loss of 161.91 million CAD largely to non-cash valuation adjustments.

Two key dates are circled on the investor calendar. The quarterly report on May 21 will provide the first concrete production data from Sangdong's ramp-up phase. This will be followed by the Annual General Meeting on June 8, where management is expected to give updates on the Phase 2 expansion and the integration of U.S. operations.

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Almonty Stock: New Analysis - 12 April

Fresh Almonty information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

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