Almonty's 21-Year Tungsten Supply Deal and Production Start Can't Halt Deepening Slide
Published on 07/16/2026 at 15:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Global Tungsten & Powders, a subsidiary of Austria's Plansee Group, has extended its offtake agreement with Almonty Industries by six years, locking in deliveries through the late 2040s. The expanded contract covers 4.41 million metric tonne units — a 40% increase in volume — and ties the tungsten producer's revenue visibility to a horizon most miners only dream of. Yet the market response has been anything but celebratory: Almonty's shares have shed roughly 12% in European trading and more than 9% in North American sessions in recent days, continuing a slide that has pulled the stock 41.65% below its 52-week high of C$33.35 reached in mid-April.
The disconnect between operational progress and share price is stark. On Thursday, the Almonty stock fell another 2.17% in euro-denominated trading to €11.955, following a 11.55% plunge the prior day. Across North American markets, the equity closed at C$19.46 on Wednesday, with a single-day drop of 9.6% on Monday alone from US$16.61 to US$15.02. Over the past month, the shares have lost roughly a quarter of their value. Despite the rout, the stock remains up 55.41% year-to-date in Europe and 61.76% in Canada, while the 12-month gain stands at a staggering 191.75%.
Analysts remain firmly in the bull camp. DA Davidson reiterated its buy rating and US$33 price target on July 15, having raised it only days earlier. The same day, Diamond Equity Research published a study calling Almonty's recent developments "substantially positive," pointing to revenue visibility stretching into the late 2040s. Consensus on the Street is a Strong Buy, with no sell ratings. But targets are wide, reflecting the challenge of valuing a developer that has just crossed into producer status.
The operational catalyst that underpins this optimism is the Sangdong mine in South Korea. On July 1, Almonty started processing stockpiled ore through the plant's concentrator, officially shifting from developer to revenue-generating tungsten producer. The timing dovetails with tightening global supply: Chinese producers have imposed export restrictions, and Sangdong is one of the few large-scale tungsten projects outside China nearing full commercialisation. That positions Almonty as a potential linchpin for Western defence and technology supply chains.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Diamond Equity Research highlighted that Almonty's Phase I output is about 90% covered by long-term contracts, with pricing approximately 6.3% above previous terms. That premium alone should add at least US$30 million in annual revenue from Phase I. Crucially, the planned Phase II expansion — which would roughly double the mine's processing capacity — has been deliberately left uncontracted. Management wants to keep that volume free for future spot sales or strategic partnerships, a move the analysts regard as a key value driver.
Not everyone is convinced the current price is justified. Valuation metrics flash warning signs: the price-to-sales ratio stands at roughly 166, and the price-to-book ratio at 23.25, far above industry averages. Gross margins are a healthy 29.3% on revenue of US$32.51 million, but profitability remains deeply negative. For value-oriented analysts, the stock looks expensive even after the correction.
Technicals add another layer of concern. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 37.2, signalling oversold territory. The stock trades 22.08% below its 50-day moving average of C$24.98. Annualised 30-day volatility has surged to 103.49%, a figure that typically keeps short-term traders on edge. While oversold readings can precede stabilisation, they offer no guarantee.
Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The tug of war between near-term market sentiment and long-term fundamentals may resolve only when Almonty reports its next quarterly results. Investors want to see whether the concentrate output from Sangdong actually translates into sustainable cash flow. Until then, the stock's dramatic slide looks set to remain at odds with a production debut and a contract book that stretches two decades into the future.
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Almonty Stock: New Analysis - 16 July
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