Almonty’s Breakout Rally: Momentum and a Pivotal Mine Collide With an F-Rated Value Score
Published on 07/11/2026 at 19:13 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
A single-day surge of 12.4 percent lifted Almonty Industries’ Toronto-listed shares to C$23.38 on Friday, extending a 12-month run that has already topped 200 percent. Yet beneath the headline numbers lies a stock that, by conventional measures, belongs in the penalty box: no earnings, a negative EBIT margin, and a value grade of F from AAII’s A+ Investor system. The rally is being driven not by profits, but by a strategic shift in the global tungsten supply chain — and by one mine in South Korea that is finally delivering.
The immediate catalyst for Friday’s move was a bullish call from DA Davidson, which raised its price target for Almonty to US$33 from US$25, citing the production ramp-up at the Sangdong mine. The operation is now actively processing tungsten, a metal classified as critical by Western governments seeking to reduce reliance on Chinese supply. The upgrade follows an earlier target hike from Oppenheimer and comes alongside Almonty’s inclusion in the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices, a step that typically triggers passive buying from index funds and boosts institutional visibility.
The combination of production momentum and index membership helps explain why a company with a market capitalisation of roughly €3.64 billion and annual revenue of just €32.5 million can command such a rich valuation. Almonty posted a loss per share over the past four quarters, making a traditional price-to-earnings ratio meaningless. Its momentum score, however, stands at 88 — “very strong” — reflecting a weighted relative price strength of 16.06 percent over the past four quarters. The tension between an F-grade value assessment and a top-tier momentum reading is rare, and it underscores how deeply the market is betting on future cash flows rather than current fundamentals.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Technically, the picture is mixed. The stock closed Friday below both its 50-day moving average of C$25.40 and its 100-day moving average of C$25.39, but well above the 200-day line of C$18.69, confirming the longer-term uptrend remains intact. The relative strength index sits at 48, neutral territory that leaves room for movement in either direction. With a 30-day annualised volatility of roughly 97 percent, swings of this magnitude are the norm rather than the exception. The 52-week high of C$33.35, set in April, still sits about 30 percent above the current price.
Beyond the technicals, the broader geopolitical backdrop gives Almonty’s story added weight. Tungsten prices remain elevated, benefiting the company directly, and the price of molybdenum — a by-product often associated with tungsten deposits — surged 48.9 percent in May to around US$65,503 per tonne. Analysts at Oppenheimer have highlighted these tailwinds as structurally supportive. The Sangdong mine, once fully ramped up, is expected to help Almonty become a key non-Chinese supplier of tungsten, a metal used in everything from cutting tools to military armour.
Still, the balance sheet remains thin. The company carries a high debt load and its revenue, though growing at a compounded annual rate of about 25 percent over three years, is starting from a low base. Fair-value estimates from independent models vary widely, reflecting the uncertainty around how quickly Sangdong can convert stockpiled ore into sales — and whether those sales can ever translate into sustainable profits. Short-term technical support for the stock is seen in the US$15.00–US$15.20 range, with resistance between US$17.50 and US$18.00.
For now, the market is pricing in a future that Almonty has yet to deliver. The production milestone at Sangdong is real, the index inclusion is tangible, and the strategic demand for Western-sourced tungsten is undeniable. But with a PE ratio that cannot even be calculated and a value grade that screams caution, the next leg of the rally will depend less on analyst price targets and more on how quickly the mine turns ore into cash.
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Almonty Stock: New Analysis - 11 July
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