Almonty's CAD 162 Million Paper Loss Masks a Tungsten Business Hitting Its Stride
Published on 07/08/2026 at 17:07 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The disconnect between Almonty Industries’ rocketing commodity and its slumping share price is narrowing – but not for reasons the company would welcome. The tungsten developer posted a net loss of CAD 161.9 million for fiscal 2025, a figure that looks alarming until you peel back the layers. The bulk of that red ink – CAD 87.3 million – stems from a non-cash revaluation of embedded derivatives tied to convertible bonds, a balance sheet distortion triggered by the very thing shareholders want to see: a soaring stock price.
Almonty’s equity closed at CAD 21.36 on Wednesday in Canada, down 0.93% on the session, while its ASX-listed shares shed 4.86% intraday. The stock now sits 35.95% below its 52-week high of CAD 33.35 hit in April. Over the past month, it has slipped roughly 7% – a slide that has more to do with Seoul than Sangdong. South Korea’s KOSPI index plunged into bear-market territory on Wednesday, dropping 5.4%, and a broader tech rout connected to artificial-intelligence capacity concerns has pulled the Nasdaq lower as well. Almonty’s primary asset, the Sangdong tungsten mine, is located in South Korea, making the company a hostage to local market sentiment despite its global commodity exposure.
Tungsten’s Structural Squeeze Intensifies
The fundamental story, however, remains as tight as the tungsten market itself. The price of ammonium paratungstate has surged roughly tenfold since early 2022, now trading above USD 3,000 per metric ton unit. A global supply deficit is projected at 12,000 tonnes for 2026, widening to 23,000–25,000 tonnes by 2029. China, which controls about 80% of primary tungsten production, is cutting its mining quotas for 2026 by 8%, further tightening the screws.
Almonty’s largest shareholder, the Plansee Group, confirmed in its fiscal 2025/26 results released 7 July that it has secured a long-term tungsten supply agreement from Sangdong. Plansee, a major European metals processor, noted that western processing markets remain largely closed or dependent on Chinese secondary supply, giving primary production from South Korea outsized strategic value. The US Department of Defense’s DFARS 252.225-7052 rule, mandating a complete phase-out of tungsten from China, Russia, Iran and North Korea by 1 January 2027, adds a hard deadline that only a handful of non-Chinese mines can meet.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Technical Signals Point to Oversold Territory
The recent pullback has pushed Almonty’s 14-day relative strength index to 37.3, firmly into oversold territory. The stock is trading 16.65% below its 50-day moving average of CAD 25.63, though it remains 18.18% above its 200-day average of CAD 18.49. Annualised 30-day volatility stands at a hair-trigger 90.47%, reflecting the cross-currents between a booming tungsten market and a turbulent Korean equity environment.
Analysts have largely brushed off the headline loss. Of the six ratings tracked, four are "Buy" and one is "Strong Buy", with only a single "Sell". The market seems to view the CAD 162 million loss as an accounting quirk rather than an operational red flag – a view supported by the fact that the derivative revaluation is tied to the convertible bonds’ conversion value rising alongside the share price. On a 12-month basis, Almonty is still up 198% in Canada and 205% on the ASX, and year-to-date gains top 77%.
Sangdong’s Strategic Timeline
Beyond the noise, Sangdong remains the linchpin. The mine is one of the few significant tungsten deposits outside China with a clear path to production. Rivals are also moving: Tungsten West confirmed this month it will begin a staged ramp-up at Britain’s Hemerdon mine, targeting full production by Q1 2027, while Guardian Metal Resources has launched a pilot partnership with the US Army Research Laboratory for defence-oriented tungsten processing.
Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
For Almonty, the immediate challenge is not the commodity price, which is working spectacularly in its favour, nor the accounting loss, which is harmless. It is the weight of a South Korean equity market in freefall and a tech-driven global sell-off that has swept up everything in its path. Once the macro dust settles, the company’s exposure to a structurally tight, geopolitically critical metal – and a locked-in customer in Plansee – should reassert itself.
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Almonty Stock: New Analysis - 8 July
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