Almonty's Options Frenzy and Insider Exit: Two Sides of a Wolfram Story

A curious split has emerged in the market for Almonty Industries. On one side, options traders piled into call contracts at a pace rarely seen, while on the other, a cornerstone investor cashed out a chunk of its stake. The juxtaposition captures the tension between bullish narrative and real-world execution that now defines this wolfram producer.

Call option volume exploded to 5,235 contracts on April 23 — a 166 percent surge above the daily average of roughly 1,968 contracts. The spike came as B. Riley Financial lifted its price target to $23 from $17, maintaining an "Outperform" rating. DA Davidson and Oppenheimer also sit in the bullish camp with targets of $25 and $19, respectively.

Yet Deutsche Rohstoff, a long-standing anchor shareholder, used the strength to reduce its position. The German firm sold approximately 9 million shares in early April, cutting its holding by 38 percent. Before the sale, it owned roughly 9 percent of the company.

The Pentagon Pivot Takes Shape

Almonty completed its headquarters relocation from Toronto to Dillon, Montana on April 13, a move that physically places the company closer to US government agencies and defense contractors. The shift is more than symbolic: several retired US military officers have been appointed to senior roles to streamline supply chains for defense applications. Wolfram is increasingly classified as a critical material for armor plating, munitions, and advanced electronics.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

Texas Capital rewarded the strategic realignment with an upgrade to "Strong Buy." The bank's analysts peg fair value at C$43.36 based on cash-flow models, well above the current trading price of around C$28.84. They anticipate strong cash generation once the new production phases come online.

Morgan Stanley has also flagged Almonty as a beneficiary of the global space race. The bank's "Space 60" framework identifies mining companies as critical suppliers of specialty minerals for satellite and rocket manufacturing. The prospect of a SpaceX listing — reportedly valued at over $2 trillion — adds another layer of attention to the narrative.

Sangdong: The Operational Engine

The real driver of growth remains the Sangdong mine in South Korea. After completing its initial commissioning phase in March, the facility returned to commercial production for the first time in three decades. The processing plant currently handles 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, yielding roughly 2,300 tonnes of wolfram concentrate per year.

At full capacity, Sangdong would cover about 40 percent of global supply outside Chinese control. Management already plans to double processing capacity next year.

The heavy investment required to build this infrastructure shows up in the numbers. Revenue in the final quarter of last year reached C$8.72 million, but the company posted a loss of C$0.48 per share. Analysts attribute the deficit largely to commissioning costs for the major projects and corporate restructuring.

Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

The expansion was funded by a Nasdaq listing last summer and a subsequent financing round worth $129 million.

Technical Heat and the Next Milestone

Despite the insider selling, the stock has more than tripled since January, gaining roughly 156 percent year-to-date and over 730 percent on a twelve-month basis. Shares currently trade at C$30.78, about four percent below the 52-week high of C$32.07 set on April 17. The relative strength index of 71 signals an overbought condition.

The next operational catalyst is the Gentung wolfram project in Montana, where production is expected to restart within the current calendar year. That would further close the loop on Almonty's North American supply chain strategy — a bet that will ultimately be measured against concrete production and revenue figures rather than market enthusiasm.

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Almonty Stock: New Analysis - 23 April

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