Almonty's Tungsten Calculus: Record Prices Meet a Tightening Western Supply Window
Published on 05/15/2026 at 08:13 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The price of ammonium paratungstate has nearly quadrupled since the start of the year, touching roughly $3,140 per metric tonne unit in early May, and that surge is rewriting the financial math for Almonty Industries. For a company still transitioning from developer to steady-state producer, the margin leverage has been dramatic. Operating mine profit from its Portuguese assets jumped to CAD 13.0 million in the first quarter, up from just CAD 0.8 million a year earlier, even as volumes there edged lower.
The main engine, however, remains under construction. Almonty's Sangdong mine in South Korea, which officially kicked off commercial production in March, is expected to churn out more than 80% of the world's non-Chinese tungsten output once it hits full capacity. And the timing could hardly be more deliberate. From January 1, 2027, tungsten sourced from China, Russia, North Korea or Iran will be effectively barred from U.S. defense applications, creating a supply vacuum Almonty is built to fill.
The market is watching the ramp-up closely. Diamond Equity Research recently lifted its second-quarter earnings estimate to $0.14 per share from $0.12, while pegging full-year 2026 profit at $0.59 a share. For fiscal 2027, the same firm sees earnings climbing to $1.23 per share, signalling confidence that Sangdong is more than a one-off catalyst. Broker targets span a wide range: Oppenheimer sits at $19.00, B. Riley at $23.00 and DA Davidson at $25.00 — all well above the stock's current level.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Yet the share price tells a more measured story. Almonty closed at CAD 25.12 on Thursday, down 12.90% over the past month but still up 108.81% year to date. The pullback looks like profit-taking after a ferocious rally rather than a sudden loss of faith. A discounted cash-flow model values the stock at CAD 43.69, implying a 42.3% upside — assuming the Sangdong ramp stays on track.
Lewis Black, Almonty's chairman and CEO, used industry platforms this week to underline a different kind of bottleneck. At the BofA Securities metals and mining conference and later at a critical minerals forum, he presented what he called "No team, no tungsten, no time: the human capital crisis in mining," arguing that skilled labour and operational experience are becoming as scarce as the metal itself. The message: securing Western supply chains requires not just deposits, but people, plants and patience.
Almonty has the balance sheet to buy that patience. As of March 31, the company held roughly CAD 259.9 million in cash and CAD 169.5 million in working capital. That liquidity is earmarked for the next expansion phase at Sangdong and the development of the Gentung tungsten project in Montana. Whether those assets can convert strategic positioning into sustained output by the 2027 deadline will define the next chapter — and determine whether the analyst upgrades prove prescient or premature.
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