Almonty’s Tungsten Expansion Meets a Market That Won’t Reward It
Published on 07/17/2026 at 05:24 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Almonty Industries has done nearly everything investors in critical minerals usually ask for: it has brought a South Korean tungsten project into production, locked in long-dated offtake and earned a place in major benchmarks. Yet the share price has moved the other way, caught between company-specific progress and a punishing regional selloff.
The latest milestone came on 14 July 2026, when Almonty announced a major expansion of its agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders. The contract now runs for 21 years from first delivery, with volume increased by 40 percent to 4.41 million MTU and pricing improved by 6.3 percent. The company said that translates into roughly 490 million US dollars in annual revenue from a single contract.
That agreement matters because it underpins a broader strategic shift. With China controlling around 80 percent of the global tungsten market and Beijing having restricted exports in early 2025, western buyers have been looking for supply outside the country. Almonty has leaned hard into that gap, marketing itself as FEOC-free and aiming to serve defense and technology customers that want to reduce dependence on Chinese material.
Operationally, Sangdong in South Korea has started to deliver. The mine officially began processing in June 2026, and the throughput process at the plant started on 1 July 2026. Almonty says the site has an ore reserve of 139,700 tons grading 0.25 percent WO?, with a stated value of about 68 million US dollars. The project is also supported by a KfW loan of 75.1 million US dollars.
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Index inclusion added another layer of visibility. On 29 June 2026, Almonty was admitted to the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000, a move that typically brings passive buying from index funds. Instead, the market has focused elsewhere.
On Thursday, the stock closed at 18.51 CAD, down 20.83 percent over seven days and 28.31 percent over the past month. A separate move cited in the July 14 update put the shares at 18.58 Canadian dollars, down 5.59 percent on the day. Either way, the message is the same: the equity has been under pressure even as the company’s operating story has improved. It is now 44.50 percent below its 52-week high of 33.35 CAD, reached on 17 April 2026.
One explanation is technical and regional rather than fundamental. The July 14 note pointed to a heavy drop in South Korea’s KOSPI index, driven by a semiconductor-sector crisis, which triggered risk aversion and margin calls across Korea-linked names. Because Sangdong is in South Korea, Almonty has been pulled into that sweep despite the company’s contract wins and production progress.
The stock’s chart reflects that strain. Its 14-day RSI sits at 35, or 35.1 in the July 14 update, putting it close to oversold territory. Annualized volatility is 102.68 percent, and the shares are trading about 25 percent below the 50-day average. Those are the markings of a turbulent market, not a business that has stalled.
The longer-term numbers are still strong. Over 12 months, the stock is up 197.59 percent in one set of figures and 178.56 percent in another, while year to date it has gained 53.87 percent. Diamond Equity Research remains constructive, with a target of 31.80 Canadian dollars, arguing that higher volumes and slightly better pricing from the expanded Global Tungsten & Powders contract support the valuation.
Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
That leaves Almonty in an unusual position. It has moved from development to production, secured a 21-year customer commitment covering about 90 percent of Phase I output, and gained index inclusion at a time when the International Energy Agency has warned that concentration in critical minerals could put as much as 6.5 trillion US dollars of global supply chains at risk. Yet the stock has still been dragged lower.
For now, the company’s fundamentals look better than its chart. Whether the market eventually re-rates the shares will depend on whether investors decide to focus on the structural shortage of tungsten outside China rather than the recent Korea-driven turbulence.
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Almonty Stock: New Analysis - 17 July
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