Almonty’s Wolfram Puzzle: A Half-Billion-Dollar Contract Meets a Falling Share Price
Published on 07/24/2026 at 16:51 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The disconnect between corporate news flow and stock performance at Almonty Industries has rarely been wider. In July alone, the tungsten producer expanded a key offtake agreement to nearly half a billion dollars in annual revenue, started commercial processing at its long-awaited Sangdong mine, and watched its shares slide roughly 15 percent over the past 30 days. The contradiction is not lost on investors, who appear to be pricing in years of future success and demanding flawless execution in return.
A Contract That Keeps Growing
On July 14, Almonty announced it had widened its tungsten offtake pact with Global Tungsten & Powders to $490 million in annual contracted revenue at current APT prices. That is no cosmetic adjustment. The company is locking in substantial revenue visibility at a moment when the tungsten market remains historically tight. Just three days later, Almonty filed a Form 6-K disclosing a further amendment dated July 7 that tweaked the already-revised supply agreement yet again. The speed of the back-to-back revisions suggests both sides see room to push further — a dynamic that typically favors the supplier controlling a scarce resource.
From Promises to Production
For years, Almonty was primarily a story stock built on promises. That narrative is shifting. The Sangdong processing plant in South Korea began commercial production this month after its commissioning phase, marking the transition from construction to actual output of saleable tungsten concentrate. This operational milestone represents the single most significant risk-reduction event the equity has seen, moving the company away from a speculative thesis dependent on execution toward one that can be measured against realized cash flows.
The ramp-up is being fed by a stockpile of roughly 139,700 tonnes of run-of-mine ore, carrying an estimated gross value of about $68 million at current tungsten prices. Almonty has been processing since July 1 and is now optimizing throughput volumes.
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A Structural Squeeze in Tungsten
The timing of Sangdong’s arrival is fortuitous because the tungsten market is acutely undersupplied. According to an industry newsletter citing analyst Michael Dornhofer, raw tungsten prices have surged roughly ninefold since the start of 2025. The APT reference price began last year at around $330 per mtu WO? and now sits above $3,000.
The catalyst was a regulatory shock. On February 4, 2025, China — responsible for more than 80 percent of global tungsten output — placed the metal under its dual-use export control regime. Exports of tungsten raw materials and most tungsten-containing products effectively ground to a halt. Critically, the shortage is not limited to Western markets. China itself is now tight on supply because the country has been cutting its domestic mining quotas annually for several years. Even in its own market, concentrate remains scarce.
For Almonty’s investment case, this is directly relevant. The company is one of the few producers capable of filling the emerging gap outside China. As the company’s own newsletter notes, there are simply too few operating tungsten mines in the West to meet demand. Without new mines, the entire market shrinks — even established producers would lose customers.
Exchange Consolidation and a Major Shareholder Trim
Almonty is simultaneously streamlining its exchange footprint. The ASX suspended trading in the company’s securities on July 23 at Almonty’s request, ahead of a market update due by July 27. The Australian bourse had already approved a voluntary delisting, and the company plans to exit the Toronto Stock Exchange by July 31 as well. Going forward, Almonty will trade solely on the Nasdaq under the ticker ALM and on the Frankfurt exchange.
The rationale is straightforward: fewer listing venues mean lower administrative costs and reduced compliance burdens. The move also reflects the reality that trading in Australia had largely dried up — CHESS Depositary Interests represented only about 0.80 percent of total outstanding shares by mid-July. While the Nasdaq consolidation positions Almonty for potential inclusion in US defense capital flows and index membership, it also removes a Canadian listing that some long-term shareholders may have favored.
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Adding to the near-term pressure, major shareholder Deutsche Rohstoff AG sold 5 million Almonty shares at roughly $16 each, booking a substantial pre-tax profit. The German resource group still holds about 5.5 million shares, so the move was a partial exit rather than a full divorce — but it added to the selling pressure on an already declining stock.
The Execution Premium
The stock now trades roughly 40 percent below its 52-week high of C$33.35 set in April, though it remains up nearly 230 percent year-to-date. That trajectory captures the tension at the heart of the Almonty story. A nearly half-billion-dollar offtake agreement, the start of real production at Sangdong, and a tungsten market suffering a China-driven supply deficit all point to fundamentals improving faster than current market sentiment reflects.
The risk is that so much good news is already priced in that the equity now trades on faith in flawless execution rather than on today’s cash flows. Further upside will likely depend less on new contract announcements and more on whether Almonty can simply demonstrate that it can deliver tonnage from Sangdong on schedule and at scale. The market update due Monday will offer the first real test of whether the ramp-up is meeting expectations — and whether the stock’s recent slide is a buying opportunity or a warning.
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