Almonty Strikes Tungsten, Expands Deal, and Nears Nasdaq-Only Listing — but the Stock's 42% Slide Tells a Different Story
Published on 07/20/2026 at 03:51 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
For a company that just began producing saleable tungsten concentrate, locked in a 21-year offtake agreement worth nearly half a billion dollars annually, and is streamlining its listing to a single exchange, Almonty Industries might expect a warmer reception from investors. Instead, the stock has shed 42.28% from its 52-week high of 33.35 Canadian dollars hit on April 17, closing Friday at 19.25 CAD — a 3.94% gain on the day, but little more than a blip in a month that has seen the shares tumble 25.45%.
The divergence between operational momentum and market sentiment has rarely been wider. Since the start of the year, Almonty remains up 59.49%, and the 12-month gain still stands at a staggering 209.49%. But the recent correction has been brutal enough to push the Relative Strength Index to 38.1, deep into oversold territory. The stock now trades below both its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, though it clings to a marginal premium above the 200-day line at 18.96 CAD.
The Sangdong Engine Fires Up
What should have been the quarter's defining news came on July 1, when Almonty delivered the first saleable tungsten concentrate from its Sangdong mine in South Korea. Just days later, on July 7, the company expanded its long-term supply agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders. The contract now runs 21 years — up from 15 — covers a 40% volume increase to 4.41 million metric tonne units, and locks in higher pricing. The extension is expected to boost annual contract revenue by at least $30 million, bringing the total annual value of offtake to roughly $490 million at current ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices. The deal backs approximately 90% of Phase 1 production.
That kind of revenue visibility is rare for a miner at this stage, and it has not gone unnoticed on Wall Street. DA Davidson recently raised its price target on Almonty to $33 USD and reiterated a buy rating, citing progress at Sangdong, a pending U.S. government equity stake, a solid balance sheet, and record tungsten prices.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
The Other Side of the Coin: Shorts and Structure
Yet for every bullish analyst call, there is a countervailing force. Short interest surged 54% month-over-month as of July 18, leaving days-to-cover at 2.35 — a signal that a growing cohort of investors sees further downside. The company itself acknowledged market nerves by announcing its withdrawal from the Toronto Stock Exchange, effective July 31, 2026, leaving only the Nasdaq listing under the ticker ALM. Management pointed to cost savings and the fact that the bulk of daily trading volume already flows through the U.S. exchange, but the delisting has added another layer of uncertainty to a stock already under pressure.
Valuation: Expensive by the Numbers, But Context Matters
The bear case leans heavily on valuation. Almonty's price-to-book ratio of 15.6 dwarfs the metals and mining industry average of roughly 2.5, though it looks less extreme against direct competitors that trade at an average of 140.6 times book. On a broader assessment, the company scores only three out of six points on composite valuation checks — neither a clear bargain nor obviously overpriced.
The fundamental picture offers some reassurance. Trailing twelve-month revenue rose about 54%, gross margin improved to 29%, and the debt-to-equity ratio fell to 0.47 as equity grew. That deleveraging reduces near-term refinancing risk and gives management more breathing room as Sangdong ramps up processing.
A recent index inclusion — Almonty was added to both the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 — should boost institutional visibility, though it has done little to halt the selloff so far.
Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Two Stories, One Stock Price
Almonty's shares are caught between compelling backdrops. One narrative speaks to a super-cycle in critical minerals, Western supply-chain security, and a mine that is now delivering on its long-promised output. The other warns that even with a 21-year contract and $490 million in annual revenue coverage, execution risk, a high book premium, and a heavy short interest leave little margin for error.
The coming weeks will bring fresh production data from Sangdong and a final trading day on the TSX. Those two events — one operational, one structural — may determine whether the current correction becomes a buying opportunity or the start of a broader reassessment.
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