As Tungsten Prices Triple, Almonty’s Revenue Explodes – But the Stock Drops First
Published on 05/16/2026 at 02:51 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The disconnect between operational momentum and market reaction at Almonty Industries has rarely been starker. The Canadian tungsten specialist just posted revenue of C$25.4 million for the first quarter, more than triple the year-ago figure, as mining earnings climbed to C$13 million. Yet investors sent the stock down 4% on Friday to C$24.14 in Toronto, extending a 30-day slide of over 16%.
The culprit: a net loss of C$0.02 per share that missed analyst expectations for black ink. Expansion spending is still swallowing cash, and the market is taking a wait-and-see approach.
That caution may prove short-lived. The company’s pivotal Sangdong mine in South Korea, already operational since March, is moving toward a second development phase that could transform the financials. Shareholders are set to vote on the expansion on June 8. If approved, annual processing capacity will jump to 1.2 million tonnes from the current first-stage target of 640,000 tonnes, pushing Sangdong among the largest tungsten projects outside China.
Bank of America estimates that full integration could propel annual revenue to C$670 million by the end of 2026 – a step-change from the current run rate.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Supply constraints meet white-hot pricing
The bullish case rests on a tungsten market that has tightened dramatically. Prices for ammonium paratungstate have surged from roughly US$862.50 per metric tonne unit in early January to about US$3,140 per MTU by early May. That reflects Chinese export restrictions, Western procurement programs, and a scramble for secure supply chains.
Almonty’s Sangdong ore boasts a grade of 0.51% tungsten trioxide – roughly three times the global average. The first stage alone is designed to deliver 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate annually.
Montana adds a further strategic dimension. Through exclusive rights to the Gentung corridor, Almonty is targeting production readiness in the second half of 2026, with expected output of around 140,000 MTU per year. The United States has not produced any tungsten since 2015, and proposed procurement rules would bar material from China, Russia, and North Korea from defense contracts starting in 2027.
Analysts see the pullback as a buying opportunity
Despite the recent stock retreat, Almonty has still more than doubled year-to-date and gained nearly 550% over the past twelve months. Several research firms are advising clients to use the dip.
Sphene Capital reiterated its buy rating and lifted its price target to C$37.40, citing the rapid ramp-up at Sangdong. DA Davidson and B. Riley also maintain buy ratings with targets of US$25 and US$23, respectively. Diamond Equity Research raised its 2027 earnings per share estimate to US$1.68 from US$1.43, though it flagged that the study was commissioned by Almonty.
Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Institutional interest is building. Van Eck recently increased its stake to 11.24 million shares.
On the technical side, the Altman Z-score stands at roughly 16, signaling extremely low bankruptcy risk despite a currently negative return on equity. Analysts see a target range of US$27 to US$41 in the coming months, as long as the stock holds support near the 50-day moving average around C$26.
The June 8 vote will be the next major catalyst. For now, the market is pricing in execution risk – but the operating narrative is gaining momentum.
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Almonty Stock: New Analysis - 16 May
Fresh Almonty information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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