ASML Flexes Monopoly Muscle: TSMC Faces 10% Price Hike While Intel Proves High-NA Viability
Published on 07/21/2026 at 21:21 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
ASML’s Tuesday rally told only part of the story. The lithography giant’s shares surged as much as 4.67% to €1,599.00 before settling at €1,584.80, a 3.74% gain, as investors digested two powerful and contrasting signals about the company’s future pricing power and technology adoption. On one side, reports emerged that ASML is pushing a 10% price increase for its Low-NA EUV machines on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.; on the other, Intel Foundry confirmed it is already using the far more expensive High-NA EUV systems for volume production of its Panther Lake processors on the 18A node.
The price-negotiation story, first covered by The Information, casts ASML’s relationship with its biggest customer in a new light. The Dutch company is demanding a 10% uplift on Low-NA EUV tools, with TSMC pushing back. Yet analysts see the very attempt as evidence of ASML’s unrivalled market position — it remains the world’s sole supplier of the most advanced lithography gear. The higher prices would apply to systems delivered from late 2028 onward, part of a deliberate shift from unit-based pricing to a value-based model that better captures the productivity gains of newer scanner generations.
In contrast, Intel’s embrace of High-NA EUV validates a technology that had faced commercial scepticism. Critics questioned whether the multi-million-euro machines could ever justify their cost in a real fab. Intel’s decision to deploy them for Panther Lake, ahead of its second-quarter earnings report on July 23, removes much of that doubt. TSMC, by contrast, is holding back, citing the expense. That makes Intel’s ramp the critical reference case for ASML’s most advanced platform — a test that, if successful, could unlock a whole new wave of orders.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
The two narratives converge on the same underlying theme: ASML is betting that its monopoly will allow it to extract more value from the artificial-intelligence boom. The company reported second-quarter revenue of €9.3 billion and net profit of €2.9 billion, both beating expectations, and raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of €43 billion to €45 billion — well above the prior €36 billion to €40 billion band. To meet demand, management confirmed a “capacity sprint”: a 30% production increase for Low-NA EUV systems by 2027, with a further similar expansion under review for 2028, plus a 30% boost for DUV immersion tools. This year alone, around 65 Low-NA EUV units are slated for delivery, compared with 44 in 2025.
The scramble to add capacity reflects what Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, calls an “extraordinary order intake.” Customers are not just buying new machines but also upgrading and retrofitting existing ones — a sign that chipmakers are squeezing every last drop from current capacity while bracing for the next investment wave. AI demand is pulling investment forward across both leading-edge logic and memory chips, he noted, shifting the question from whether ASML will get orders to whether it can build enough tools to fulfill them.
Wall Street has responded with a flurry of target upgrades. Citi raised its price target from €1,675 to €2,200, Berenberg lifted to €2,100 on a gross-margin view of 54%–56% (above consensus of 52.5%), Morgan Stanley set a target of €1,930, and Deutsche Bank raised to €2,150. The DZ Bank even upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy. The average 12-month target across 18 analysts now stands at roughly €1,590 — only a whisker above Tuesday’s close — suggesting that much of the good news is already priced in. ASML trades at a price-to-earnings multiple of around 40 on expected earnings, reflecting its status as the essential enabler of sub-three-nanometre chip production.
The stock remains 8.52% below its record high of €1,748.00 from June 30, but has jumped 71.98% to 73.52% year to date depending on the reporting source. Tuesday’s move recouped some of the ground lost after the July 15 earnings release, when the stock slid roughly 3% even as the PHLX semiconductor index dropped 8% over the same three-day period. Investors had been wrestling with valuation in a sector-wide selloff, but the twin catalysts of TSMC pricing talks and Intel’s High-NA endorsement have refocused attention on ASML’s unmatched strategic position. The next inflection point comes on July 23, when Intel reports earnings — potentially offering the clearest verdict yet on whether ASML’s most expensive machines can deliver a commercial return in volume production.
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