ASML's €1,738 Question: Can Upcoming Orders Justify a 76% Year-to-Date Surge?
Published on 07/01/2026 at 07:13 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The calendar is circled for July 15. Before the opening bell, ASML will release its second-quarter 2026 earnings — a report that could either validate the lithography giant's breathtaking run or trigger a sharp correction. The shares closed yesterday at €1,737.80, a mere 0.6% below their 52-week high of €1,748.00, having surged roughly 76% since the start of the year. From the August 2025 trough of €593.60, the stock has nearly tripled.
That kind of vertical ascent leaves little room for disappointment. The shares now trade more than 52% above their 200-day moving average, and the 30-day annualized volatility sits at 56% — a clear sign the market is pricing in a binary event. The relative strength index of 64.3 suggests momentum is strong but not yet overheated, though the 22% premium above the 50-day average underscores how stretched the stock has become.
The bull case rests on a structural monopoly that no competitor can challenge in the near term. ASML remains the sole manufacturer of EUV lithography systems — machines that cost around $300 million apiece and use laser light to etch the most advanced chip circuits. CEO Christophe Fouquet has stated that chip demand continues to outstrip supply, with customers accelerating their capacity plans for 2026 and beyond. CFO Roger Dassen quantified the ramp: ASML expects to deliver roughly 60 of its best-selling Low-NA EUV systems this year, a 25% increase from 2025, and is planning capacity for 80 systems in 2027. The installed-base service business, which contributed €2.5 billion in revenue during the first quarter with above-average margins, provides an additional earnings cushion.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
The single number that will dominate the July 15 release is net order intake for the second quarter. ASML already raised its full-year 2026 guidance in April, forecasting revenue between €36 billion and €40 billion with a gross margin of 51% to 53%. Those projections assume sustained customer demand. The upcoming order figure will either confirm that assumption or expose it as overly optimistic. Given the stock's elevated valuation — a market capitalisation exceeding €600 billion — any shortfall could trigger a sharp revaluation.
The most significant risk, however, is not cyclical but geopolitical. A bipartisan group of US lawmakers has introduced the MATCH Act, legislation that targets DUV lithography sales to China. That market currently accounts for about 20% of ASML's 2026 revenue, down sharply from 36% of net system sales in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 19% in the first quarter of 2026. If enacted, the bill could go beyond restricting new machine sales — it might also jeopardise software updates, spare parts, and maintenance services for equipment already installed in China, threatening a lucrative and previously sheltered revenue stream. Analysts estimate the MATCH Act could reduce ASML's earnings per share by up to 10%, even if capacity relocations by non-Chinese chipmakers partially offset the shortfall. The Dutch government is pushing back: trade minister Sjoerd Sjoerdsma has met with US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick and members of Congress in Washington to lobby against the expansion of export controls. The bill has not yet passed.
Within the broader EuroStoxx universe, ASML stands out as the top momentum stock over the past 30 days, with a 24.24% gain. That rally is part of a wider trend — Lufthansa, Givaudan, VAT Group, and Danone have all posted double-digit returns and are trading near their respective 52-week highs. But ASML's specific cocktail of monopoly power, AI-driven demand, and geopolitical exposure makes its upcoming earnings uniquely pivotal.
On July 15, two numbers will tell the story: net order intake as a gauge of near-term demand, and any fresh management commentary on China exposure in light of the ongoing legislative process in Washington. The market has already priced a great deal of optimism. The question is whether the fundamentals can still keep pace.
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