ASML's €38.8 Billion Backlog Puts the MATCH Act in Perspective — But Earnings Will Settle the Debate
Published on 07/11/2026 at 13:23 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
ASML's stock ended last week at €1,574.20, slipping 0.51% on Friday and 3.30% over the five sessions. Yet the Dutch lithography giant's longer-term trajectory tells a different story: a 59.28% gain since January and a 128.94% surge over the past twelve months. The recent dip, however, lands in a particularly delicate moment. The market is counting down to the company's second-quarter earnings release on July 15, while a proposed U.S. law threatens to tighten the screws on an already complex export-control landscape.
That proposed legislation — the MATCH Act, introduced by Representative Michael Baumgartner on April 2, 2026, and approved by committee on April 22 — would extend existing restrictions on ASML's EUV systems to include DUV immersion machines. These are still sold and serviced in China today. A companion Senate bill is under discussion but has not passed. ASML's management has been quick to emphasise that its 2026 revenue guidance of €36 billion to €40 billion already factors in "possible outcomes of the ongoing discussions" around export controls, in the words of CEO Christophe Fouquet. How much buffer that range really provides is the central question hanging over the stock.
Data from the first quarter shows that the shift away from China is already under way. The country's share of ASML's net system sales dropped to 19% from 36% in the previous quarter, and the company projects roughly 20% for the full year. South Korea, by contrast, accounted for 45% of total sales — a clear signal that burgeoning demand from memory and logic customers outside China is beginning to fill the gap. That realignment is already embedded in the 2026 forecast. The risk is that a more aggressive version of the MATCH Act could drive Chinese exposure below the level the guidance assumes, particularly if it restricts servicing of the installed base — a high-margin recurring revenue stream.
Against that backdrop, analysts have been raising their sights. Bernstein's David Dai lifted his price target to $2,623 from $1,971, reiterating an outperform rating and citing "unprecedented AI-driven expansion in both advanced logic and DRAM capacity." Morgan Stanley's Lee Simpson followed with an increase to €1,830 from €1,660, keeping an overweight stance. The Deutsche Bank has also reaffirmed a buy recommendation. The stock now carries a strong-buy consensus, built on eight buy calls in the past three months. The catalyst for the latest wave of optimism came on July 9, when major global memory chipmakers announced multi-billion-euro investment budgets for ASML systems through 2027, driving a 4.21% single-day surge.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
Yet not every observer is convinced the rally can run unchecked. Some point to the historically elevated valuation, which leaves little margin for error and makes the stock sensitive to macro shocks. Others flag a degree of customer caution: leading foundries, including TSMC, are said to have pushed back their timelines for adopting ASML's new High-NA EUV tools, preferring cheaper advanced-packing alternatives. That could slow the conversion of ASML's record order book into actual revenue.
That order book is undeniably impressive. At the end of 2025, the backlog stood at €38.8 billion, having helped drive full-year revenue of €32.7 billion — up 15.6% year on year — and a net profit of €9.6 billion. Gross margin came in at 52.8%. The company is aggressively scaling capacity: it delivered 44 low-NA EUV systems in 2025 and targets at least 60 this year, with a goal of 80 or more by 2027. CFO Roger Dassen reiterated that the 2026 revenue range can accommodate the current export-control debate, but that claim will carry weight only if order momentum remains solid and non-China demand continues to compensate for the retreat from the Chinese market.
Technically, the stock shows a mixed picture. It sits 6.53% above its 50-day moving average of €1,477.77 and nearly 35% above the 200-day average of €1,166.58, confirming an intact long-term uptrend. The 14-day relative strength index of 51.1 is squarely neutral, while annualised 30-day volatility above 64% points to continued sharp swings. A 9.94% decline from the 52-week high of €1,748.00 set on June 30 suggests that some froth has come off, but the bull case rests on whether the underlying structural demand from AI-related memory and logic investment can outrun the political headwinds.
Asml at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
That will become clearer on July 15, when ASML reports second-quarter numbers. The market will be looking for details on order intake, EUV delivery timelines, and the trajectory of Chinese demand. If the backlog continues to swell and Fouquet's reassurance that the guidance range already prices in export-control risks holds, the stock could regain upward momentum. If order growth disappoints or the MATCH Act moves closer to becoming law in its current restrictive form, the decline from the June peak could extend. For now, the chart offers no clear direction — and the nearest catalyst is just days away.
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Asml Stock: New Analysis - 11 July
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