ASML's €40 Billion Revenue Target Collides With TSMC's High-NA Pause
Published on 04/24/2026 at 00:00 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The Dutch lithography giant delivered a double dose of news this week that left investors parsing conflicting signals. ASML raised its 2026 revenue forecast to between €36 billion and €40 billion — up from the previous range of €34 billion to €39 billion — while simultaneously absorbing a strategic blow from its most important customer.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. has pushed back adoption of ASML's cutting-edge High-NA EUV machines until at least 2029, opting instead to squeeze more performance from existing Low-NA systems through multiple patterning techniques. The decision, driven by the eye-watering price tag of roughly $380 million per High-NA scanner, sent ASML shares down 3.31 percent on Thursday to €1,209.80.
The revenue upgrade, by contrast, reflects surging demand from customers pouring capital into AI and memory chip infrastructure. Management pointed to roughly 16 percent year-over-year growth underpinning the revised outlook, with Wells Fargo responding by lifting its price target from $1,650 to $1,750 on April 23, citing improved visibility extending into 2027.
A Tale of Two Technologies
The TSMC delay exposes a growing divergence among the world's top chipmakers. Intel has forged ahead, taking delivery of High-NA systems for its 14A process node, while Samsung secured a second scanner of that class early in 2026 to accelerate its memory and logic ambitions. For the current year, ASML still expects to ship between five and ten High-NA units, with more than 60 standard EUV systems also slated for delivery.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
The company's near-term fortunes, however, rest increasingly on older DUV equipment. A surge in demand for mainstream chip applications has buoyed that segment, helping to offset the delayed High-NA purchases from TSMC. ASML's management believes the strong DUV business can fully compensate for the shift in customer timelines, though the stock has yet to fully recover from the selloff.
Capital Returns and Boardroom Changes
Shareholders at the April 22 annual general meeting authorized a buyback of up to 10 percent of outstanding shares, a mandate running through October 2027 that grants the company considerable flexibility to return capital. A final dividend of €2.70 per share was also approved, bringing the total 2025 payout to €7.50 per share.
The boardroom saw fresh faces as well. Benjamin Loh joined the supervisory board, while Terri Kelly and An Steegen were reappointed. On the management board, Marco Pieters was brought in alongside incumbents Roger Dassen and Frédéric Schneider-Maunoury.
Asml at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Washington's Shadow Looms Large
Even as ASML navigates customer-specific headwinds, a broader regulatory threat is gathering steam in Washington. The U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee passed the MATCH Act by a 38-to-8 vote, legislation designed to expand American control over semiconductor equipment exports. If enacted, the bill could restrict or entirely prohibit the sale and servicing of DUV machines to China — a market that remains critical to ASML's growth trajectory.
The combination of TSMC's technology pause and potential export curbs creates a complex picture for investors. The stock has still gained roughly 25 percent since the start of the year, but the path forward hinges on two unknowns: whether the strong DUV cycle can fully offset High-NA delays, and how far the MATCH Act will travel through the U.S. legislative process.
Ad
Asml Stock: New Analysis - 24 April
Fresh Asml information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
