ASML's Dominance Is a Given. The Stock's Valuation Is Not.
Published on 07/09/2026 at 18:45 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
There are few companies in the industrial world whose products are both indispensable and irreplaceable. ASML is one of them. The Dutch lithography titan holds an effective monopoly on the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) systems required to manufacture the most advanced semiconductors — the kind that power everything from next-generation AI accelerators to 5G infrastructure. But for all its technological invincibility, the stock has spent the past month drifting sideways, caught between a staggering 12-month gain of 135% and mounting questions about whether that premium is sustainable.
At €1,603.20, ASML shares sit roughly 8% below the all-time high of €1,748 set in late June. The year-to-date advance stands at 62.22%, a figure that already reflects the market’s deep conviction in the company’s central role in the AI buildout. That conviction is about to be tested. On 15 July, ASML will report second-quarter earnings at 07:00 CEST, with investors laser-focused on a single metric: net order intake.
The Bull Case: Backed by Billions in AI Spend
Optimists argue that the secular demand for AI compute is still in its infancy. Tech giants are expected to pour as much as $725 billion into AI infrastructure this year, and a meaningful share of that flows through to ASML’s customers. SK Hynix, Samsung, Intel and Micron are all expanding capacity at breakneck speed, and every one of them requires ASML’s latest High-NA EUV systems — machines priced at roughly €350 million apiece that can print features half the size of those produced by current-generation EUV tools.
The company’s own management has described the chip market as "supply-limited" for the foreseeable future, meaning demand is outstripping what the industry can produce. That mismatch gives ASML extraordinary pricing power and a backlog that keeps its factories running at full tilt. Recent reports suggest SK Hynix is preparing a wave of fresh orders, a move that would underscore the structural demand for 2- and 3-nanometer memory chips.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
Analyst targets reflect this optimism. Morgan Stanley recently hiked its price target to €1,830, while Susquehanna sees the stock climbing to €2,350. With a relative strength index of roughly 50, the shares are neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for a breakout if the order book delivers.
The Bear Case: Valuation Fatigue and a Korean Jolt
Yet there are cracks in the narrative, at least in the near term. On 7 July, ASML shares tumbled more than 5% intraday in sympathy with a technical selloff in South Korea’s KOSPI index — a reminder that even a monopoly can get swept up in regional market turbulence. The stock has since recovered to around €1,603 but has traded largely sideways over the past 30 days, a sign that the momentum that drove it from an August low of €593.60 may be cooling.
Goldman Sachs has sounded a cautionary note, arguing that the era of outsized positive AI surprises is drawing to a close and that speculative positioning in the semiconductor space has reached extreme levels. With ASML already trading at a rich multiple, any disappointment in the second-quarter order intake could trigger a pullback. In that scenario, the 50-day moving average at €1,463 would serve as the first line of support, while a more severe retreat could test the 200-day line near €1,159.
The bears also point to political risk. US-led export restrictions have already crimped ASML’s lower-end DUV sales to China, and the company has warned that geopolitical tensions could offset some of the gains from AI-driven demand elsewhere. The firm’s own guidance — a raised full-year revenue target of up to €40 billion — is predicated on a robust ramp of High-NA shipments and stable gross margins around 52%. If large foundries balk at the €350 million price tag, the numbers could quickly come under pressure.
What the Market Is Watching on 15 July
The earnings release at 07:00 MESZ will settle the debate, at least for the next quarter. The key variable is the volume of new orders, particularly for the high-margin High-NA systems. A strong booking report would give the stock the catalyst it needs to challenge the €1,748 record. Management’s commentary on second-half visibility and gross margin trends will be equally important.
Asml at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
If, however, the order intake underwhelms or the outlook turns cautious, the stock could slip back toward the levels last seen before the AI frenzy took hold. The 200-day moving average, currently 37.87% below the market price, looms as a distant but conceivable target if the bull case fails to hold.
ASML’s long-term thesis remains one of the most compelling in all of technology: an unassailable monopoly on the machines that enable every future generation of chips. But even the strongest moat must prove itself each quarter. On 15 July, the market will decide whether the price of admission is still worth paying.
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