ASML’s Double Act: Buybacks Signal Confidence as Musk’s Terafab Lights a Longer Spark
Published on 06/17/2026 at 15:33 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
ASML is firing on two fronts. While investors digest the implications of Elon Musk’s audacious plan to pour up to $119 billion into a chip megafactory, the Dutch lithography giant is quietly spending billions of its own to buy back stock. The result is a share price that has surged more than 60% this year, perched within striking distance of a fresh record.
The buyback programme, running at roughly €16 million a day, has a ceiling of €12 billion through 2028. ASML has been scooping up about 10,000 shares daily at prices between €1,481 and €1,540, with the bulk of the repurchased equity headed for cancellation. Bernstein Research analyst David Dai recently reiterated his “Outperform” rating with a €1,700 price target, noting that early signs of price increases in the semiconductor equipment market are playing directly into ASML’s hands. The capacity constraints for advanced lithography systems are, he argues, only tightening.
That tight supply dynamic makes the Terafab proposal all the more consequential. Speaking at an ASML technology conference in mid-June, Musk outlined a joint semiconductor venture between Tesla and SpaceX designed to end chip bottlenecks spanning AI infrastructure to autonomous driving. The initial investment of $55 billion could eventually balloon to $119 billion, with the fab targeting 2-nanometre production — the bleeding edge of the industry. ASML’s monopoly on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, each costing around €400 million, makes it indispensable for any such project. A factory of that scale would require 80 to 100 of the tools.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
ASML chief executive Christophe Fouquet confirmed after a direct conversation with Musk that the billionaire is “very serious” about the plan. Fouquet also warned that AI demand will keep the global chip industry capacity-constrained for years to come. Musk, for his part, called ASML “probably the most important company in Europe” on X. Not everyone inside the Dutch firm was thrilled — some employees used internal channels to question whether Musk’s outspoken style aligns with ASML’s traditional neutrality as a supplier to all leading chipmakers. Yet the market chose to focus on the opportunity: the stock jumped 4.32% on Wednesday to €1,623.80.
The company’s fundamentals add ballast to the narrative. In April ASML raised its full-year revenue guidance to a range of €36 billion to €40 billion, up from €34 billion to €39 billion, citing sustained AI demand. The share price now sits just under 3% below the 52-week high of €1,674.80 set on 15 June, leaving Bernstein’s €1,700 target within reach — provided the Terafab project moves beyond slides and tweets.
Risks remain, of course. The stock’s valuation is far from cheap, and geopolitics cast a long shadow: export controls continue to pressure ASML’s China business, where revenue could slide. The next quarterly report, due in July, will test whether demand holds and whether the buyback programme can keep the rally on track amid an increasingly complex landscape.
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