ASML’s Dual Engine: A Record Buyback Flies in Formation With Analyst Upticks
Published on 06/17/2026 at 18:06 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
ASML is putting money where its mouth is. The Dutch lithography titan is scooping up nearly €16 million of its own stock every single day as part of a buyback programme that could run to €12 billion by 2028. A small slice goes to employee share schemes; the rest is headed for cancellation. For a company already sitting on a market capitalisation north of $700 billion — the first European firm to cross that threshold — the move sends a clear message about management’s conviction in the road ahead.
That conviction is shared by the analyst community. Goldman Sachs lifted its price target on ASML to €1,770, pointing to stronger-than-expected demand for DUV systems, particularly from China. Bernstein Research kept an “Outperform” rating with a €1,700 target, while JPMorgan raised its own bar to €1,900. Bank of America went furthest, issuing a target of $2,268, based on a forecast that ASML’s revenue could hit €73 billion by 2030 — well above the company’s own long-range projection.
The euphoria isn’t baseless. In the first quarter, ASML generated €8.8 billion in revenue with a gross margin of 53%. That strong showing prompted management to lift its full-year guidance to as much as €40 billion. The driver is unmistakable: a global buildout of AI infrastructure. Memory maker SK Hynix, for instance, plans to double its capacity, and ASML is the sole producer of the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines needed to manufacture the most advanced chips at scale.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
That monopoly position is drawing big money. The Columbia Global Technology Growth Fund has flagged record capital expenditure among memory makers, calling the current wave an AI super-cycle. Analyst David Dai at Bernstein adds that early signs of pricing power among semiconductor equipment suppliers are emerging, and ASML is a direct beneficiary given capacity constraints for its cutting-edge systems.
Still, the stock’s ascent — up more than 66% year to date and trading almost 50% above its 200-day moving average — leaves little margin for error. After touching a 52-week high of €1,674.80 on June 15, shares closed at €1,554.80 on Tuesday, just a hair below the all-time peak. A breather after such a rally is natural, but the valuation is stretched.
Geopolitics remains the most tangible cloud. Export controls on China threaten a meaningful chunk of future revenue there. And while the buyback programme and analyst upgrades provide a sturdy floor, the next big test comes in July, when ASML reports second-quarter results. Management has guided for revenue of up to €9 billion in that period. Hitting that number is non-negotiable if the stock is to hold its current altitude.
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