ASML's Dual Narrative: Cost Discipline Meets a €38.8 Billion Backlog as High-NA Adoption Splits Chip Giants
Published on 07/06/2026 at 12:42 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
ASML is tightening its belt even as its order book swells to historic levels. The Dutch lithography giant is cutting roughly 1,700 management positions — around 4% of its total workforce — in a push to streamline operations. The efficiency drive comes at a moment when demand for its chipmaking machines has never been higher, with the global semiconductor market on track to be valued at $1.5 trillion.
Shares of ASML have already priced in much of the optimism. The stock has surged nearly 63% since January, changing hands at €1,608 on Monday — a modest 1.23% dip on the day. That leaves it about 8% below the June record of €1,748, but still well above the 50-day moving average of €1,449.83. The relative strength index of 53.2 suggests the rally has room to run without overheating.
Analysts see further upside. Susquehanna recently raised its price target from €1,475 to €2,350, implying nearly 46% additional upside. The upgrade was driven by supply-chain checks that revealed a sharp acceleration in orders for lithography systems. ASML enters the second half with a backlog of €38.8 billion, enough to secure a full year of revenue at current capacity.
The company has already raised its 2026 revenue forecast to a range of €36 billion to €40 billion, up from an earlier €34 billion to €39 billion, with a gross margin target of 51% to 53%. To meet demand, ASML plans to deliver around 60 low-NA EUV systems this year — a 25% increase — and scale up to 80 low-NA and at least 10 high-NA systems by 2027.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
High-NA EUV technology is the next frontier, but adoption is far from uniform. Each machine costs between €350 million and €400 million, and customers are taking diverging approaches. Intel has already installed several high-NA systems for its 14A process. SK Hynix is integrating them into next-generation DRAM production, and has reportedly secured around 30 EUV machines in a deal worth an estimated $8 billion. TSMC, by contrast, is slowing its high-NA rollout, citing prohibitive per-chip costs. The world’s largest contract chipmaker is keeping its checkbook closed for now, creating uneven revenue streams for ASML.
Geopolitical headwinds add another layer of uncertainty. The United States is pushing for stricter export controls on chip technology destined for China, historically a key market for ASML. Beijing is racing to develop its own EUV capability, with media calling the effort a “Manhattan Project.” A prototype is reportedly being tested in Shenzhen, though its light source currently reaches only 150 watts versus the industry standard of 250 to 600 watts. Suitable photoresists also remain a challenge.
Still, the long-term risk of a fragmented global market is real. The Netherlands has joined international export-control alliances, meaning ASML’s China business will stay under pressure. Any delay in AI-related investment — as seen recently in sharp selloffs at peers like Teradyne — can immediately rattle ASML shares.
Asml at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
All eyes are now on July 15, when ASML releases its second-quarter results. The numbers must show that the massive order backlog is translating into revenue at the expected pace. The following day, TSMC will provide its own capital expenditure outlook. Any sign of budget cuts from the Taiwanese giant could trigger a sharp reversal for ASML’s stock. Chartists are watching the €1,748 resistance level closely; a failed breakout there would likely usher in a longer consolidation phase.
For now, ASML is balancing cost cuts with a boom. The job reductions are focused on management layers, not R&D or production, suggesting the company is trying to squeeze more efficiency out of its structure without compromising its technological edge. The real test will be whether it can defend its EUV monopoly against mounting political and competitive pressures while capitalizing on the AI-driven surge in chip demand.
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Asml Stock: New Analysis - 6 July
Fresh Asml information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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