ASML's Dual Reality: Record Orders and Intel Breakthrough Overshadowed by China Service Risk

The world's most valuable chip-equipment maker is navigating a curious paradox. ASML's order books are swelling, its newest lithography technology is finally humming in a commercial factory, and management just lifted the 2026 revenue target for the second time this year. Yet the stock has been sliding for weeks, stuck 12.41% below its 52-week high of €1,748.00. At €1,531.00, the shares have shed 6.11% over the past 30 days — a disconnect that points not to the business but to a piece of legislation making its way through Washington.

Intel Foundry this month became the first chipmaker to run ASML's next-generation High-NA EUV machines in volume production. The Panther Lake processors, built on the Intel 18A node, are now rolling out as part of the Core Ultra Series 3 lineup. It is a milestone the industry has watched for years: the transition from laboratory to high-volume fab validates not only the EXE platform's precision but also its reliability at scale. Other logic and memory makers are sure to study the operational data Intel is feeding back to ASML.

That technical win came alongside another round of strong financials. On July 15, ASML reported second-quarter revenue of €9.3 billion and net profit of €2.9 billion, both above its own forecast. The star performer was the Installed Base Management segment — service and upgrade contracts on systems already in the field — which generated a record €2.76 billion in quarterly sales. Gross margin for the quarter landed at 54.0%. For the third quarter, management expects revenue between €11.0 billion and €12.0 billion with margins improving to 55–57%.

The buoyant numbers prompted ASML to raise its full-year outlook by a wide margin. The 2026 revenue forecast now stands at €43–€45 billion, up sharply from the €36–€40 billion range set in April. The gross margin for the year is pegged at 54–56%. The company credits sustained demand from AI-related infrastructure investments and capacity expansions across logic and memory customers. To keep pace, ASML plans to increase its Low-NA EUV manufacturing capacity by 30% by 2027 and is studying an additional 30% hike for 2028.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?

Yet for all the operational momentum, a political cloud has moved over the stock. The MATCH Act, a bill under consideration by U.S. lawmakers, would tighten restrictions on maintenance, software updates, and spare parts for DUV lithography systems already installed in China. Beijing's chipmakers currently account for an estimated 20% of ASML's 2026 revenue, and the service contracts that underpin the Installed Base business — the very segment that drove the latest earnings beat — are directly in the crosshairs. The Dutch government has pushed back, arguing the measure infringes on its sovereign export policy.

Analysts have begun modeling the worst-case scenario. If Washington does impose a full service ban on Chinese DUV systems, ASML's earnings per share could take a hit of up to 10%, according to some estimates. That would erase a meaningful chunk of the profit growth expected from the High-NA ramp. And while Intel is clearly committed to the new tools — each High-NA machine costs roughly $400 million — rivals such as Samsung are treading more cautiously, weighing the price tag against their own uncertain order books.

The bull case, however, remains anchored to ASML's near-monopoly in EUV lithography. The company has now raised its guidance twice this year as AI infrastructure spending accelerates, and the Intel milestone proves that the most advanced chipmaking process is commercially viable. Over the past twelve months, the stock has still gained 137.88%, and it is up 66.43% year-to-date even after the recent pullback.

Asml at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

Technicians are watching the €1,505.19 level, the 50-day moving average just 1.71% below the current price. A hold there would frame the decline as a healthy breather. A break opens the door to the 100-day average at €1,355.19. The next major trigger will likely come from Washington — an update on the MATCH Act or another statement from the Dutch government could set the direction. ASML's own third-quarter report, due later this year, will provide a real-time test of whether the growth narrative can withstand the political noise.

In the meantime, the company continues to return capital to shareholders. An interim dividend of €1.88 per share is payable on August 5, and ASML bought back roughly €1.1 billion of its own stock during the second quarter as part of a multi-year repurchase program that runs through 2028. The cash flows feeding those payouts are as strong as ever — the question is how much of them depends on machines the U.S. may decide to disconnect.

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