ASML's Guidance Takes Center Stage as Order Metric Goes Dark

Investors in ASML Holding NV are preparing for a fundamental shift in how they assess the Dutch semiconductor equipment giant. When the company reports its first-quarter 2026 results on Wednesday morning, it will do so without providing its quarterly order intake figure—a key metric that has historically driven significant stock volatility. This deliberate move refocuses the market entirely on management's forward-looking commentary and its ability to hit ambitious financial targets.

The company, which holds a monopoly on producing extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, argues the change is necessary. It stated that new order bookings arrive unevenly and can take six to 18 months to translate into revenue, making quarterly data a poor indicator of near-term performance. ASML contends that its own forecasts, based on direct discussions with chipmakers, offer a more reliable picture.

All eyes will now be on the tone set by CEO Christophe Fouquet and CFO Roger Dassen during the 3:00 PM CET investor call. Their characterization of demand for both current EUV and next-generation High-NA systems will be parsed for clues. Furthermore, analysts will listen for any update on the company's workforce reduction plan, which involves cutting 1,700 jobs and has sparked internal protests, raising questions about operational morale.

Financially, the consensus compiled by FactSet anticipates Q1 revenue of €8.61 billion, an 11.2% year-over-year increase, with earnings per share of €6.57. ASML's own guidance for the quarter projected sales between €8.2 billion and €8.9 billion, with a gross margin of 51% to 53%. The market expects the company to land within this range. The more critical driver will be whether management confirms or raises its full-year 2026 revenue target of €34 billion to €39 billion.

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Supporting these ambitious goals is a record order backlog exceeding €38 billion, more than half of which is for EUV tools. This provides substantial visibility. In late March, SK Hynix announced what is believed to be the largest single order from an ASML customer—approximately $8 billion for EUV equipment, with delivery scheduled through the end of 2027. Another major deal involves Samsung, which has ordered around 20 EUV units for its P5 fab. JPMorgan analysts have highlighted the progress of this Samsung delivery as the single most important news item in the upcoming report.

Geopolitical factors add a layer of complexity. China accounted for roughly 29% of ASML's sales in 2025, a share that is expected to decline in 2026 due to tightened export controls. A key question for investors is how much of that demand can be absorbed by other regions like Taiwan, South Korea, and the United States. Concurrently, the rollout of the more advanced High-NA EUV systems is underway, with ASML planning five to ten deliveries in 2026. Both Intel and Samsung have already placed orders for this next-generation technology.

ASML's stock has been on a remarkable run, trading near €1,294—just shy of its 52-week high. The share price has surged over 117% in the past year and gained almost 31% since the start of 2026, setting a high bar for the quarterly report to impress.

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Beyond the earnings, the company's calendar includes its Annual General Meeting in Veldhoven on April 22. The agenda includes the adoption of the 2025 financial statements and the formal appointment of Marco Pieters as the new Chief Technology Officer. Shareholders will also receive a final dividend of €2.70 per share on April 24, representing a 17% increase over the prior year's payout. With the familiar compass of quarterly orders removed, the market's reaction will hinge on the confidence ASML's leadership can project in navigating both its technological roadmap and an increasingly complex global landscape.

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