ASML's High-NA EUV Debut at Intel and Record Earnings Can't Soothe China Jitters
Published on 07/17/2026 at 19:41 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Intel Foundry has become the first chipmaker to deploy ASML's High-NA EUV lithography in commercial mass production, marking a pivotal moment for the Dutch equipment supplier's next-generation technology. The milestone arrived on July 15, with Intel confirming that its Intel 18A process node is now producing a portion of the Core Ultra Series 3 processors (Panther Lake series) using the new system. Industry observers expect the production data from this ramp to shape adoption decisions by other logic and memory manufacturers.
The same day, ASML reported second-quarter figures that exceeded its own forecasts. Revenue hit €9.3 billion, net profit reached €2.9 billion, and the gross margin landed at 54.0 percent. Management promptly lifted the full-year 2026 outlook to €43–45 billion in revenue, with a gross margin of 54–56 percent. For the third quarter, the company guides for revenue of €11.0–12.0 billion and a margin of 55–57 percent. The engine behind the upgrade: a "multi-year AI megatrend" that is pulling in orders from both logic and memory customers as they expand capacity.
To keep pace, ASML is scaling its own production footprint. Low-NA EUV and DUV immersion capacity is set to increase by 30 percent by 2027 relative to 2026, with a further 30 percent rise under review for 2028. The service business — maintenance and upgrades on the installed base — also outperformed, beating internal forecasts by €300 million and emerging as a growth driver in its own right.
Meanwhile, ASML is taking aggressive steps to lock in talent. Each employee will receive a one-time stock grant worth €20,000, costing the company a total of €900 million. The goal is to retain skilled engineers through at least 2030 in a fiercely competitive market for chip-equipment specialists.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
On the capital return front, ASML will pay an interim dividend of €1.88 per share on August 5, 2026. The company also bought back roughly €1.1 billion worth of its own shares during the second quarter as part of a multi-year buyback program running through 2028.
Stock stalls despite strong fundamentals
Yet the share price has shrugged off the positive news flow. On Friday, ASML traded at €1,534, down 2.17 percent on the day and roughly 12 percent below the 52-week high of €1,748 reached in late June. Over the past 30 days the stock has declined by about 4.65 percent, and the relative strength index sits at a neutral 49.6 — suggesting a consolidating phase rather than a directional move.
Asml at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The divergence between operational performance and market sentiment stems from a familiar source: geopolitics. Washington is tightening its grip on semiconductor trade, and the proposed MATCH Act would extend export controls to DUV immersion lithography — a direct hit to ASML's China business. While the company expects China's share of total revenue to moderate to around 20 percent in 2026 after years of elevated exposure, investors are fixated on a worse-case scenario: the potential ban on servicing the thousands of ASML machines already installed in Chinese fabs. That question remains unanswered and hangs over every earnings release with a China-related detail.
For now, ASML's technological lead has rarely been wider. The Intel High-NA EUV breakthrough, the record guidance, and the aggressive capacity buildout all point to a company executing at the top of its game. But the bridge to one of its most important end-markets has seldom been narrower — and that is the gap the market is pricing in.
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