ASML's Higher Dividend and €45 Billion Revenue Forecast Fail to Soothe Investors
Published on 07/19/2026 at 23:51 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
ASML delivered a strong second quarter and raised its full-year outlook to as much as €45 billion, yet its shares closed at €1,528.00 on Friday, down 2.51% on the day and 6.29% over the past 30 days. Even a higher interim dividend of €1.88 per share, announced alongside the results and payable on August 5, 2026, could not stem the decline. The disconnection between the company’s operational momentum and its stock price has left market participants searching for explanations.
The Dutch lithography specialist posted net sales of €9.3 billion in the three months to June, beating its own forecast, with net profit of €2.9 billion and a gross margin of 54.0%. Management now expects full-year revenue of €43 billion to €45 billion, up from a previous range of €36 billion to €40 billion, and a gross margin of 54% to 56%. For the third quarter, ASML guided revenue between €11 billion and €12 billion, implying a further acceleration. CEO Christophe Fouquet described orders in the first half as “extremely strong,” driven by customers accelerating capacity plans amid surging demand for artificial-intelligence chips. The company is already scaling production of its low-NA EUV systems, targeting 85 units by 2027 and 110 by 2028.
The market’s reluctance to celebrate appears tied to valuation concerns. Morningstar analyst Javier Correonero warned that ASML trades at roughly 50 times expected earnings, a multiple not seen since the pandemic peak, and argued that a fair price-earnings ratio would be 35 to 40. That caution stands in sharp contrast to a wave of analyst upgrades. Berenberg raised its target from €1,570 to €2,100, while Deutsche Bank moved from €1,800 to €2,150. JPMorgan lifted its target to $2,400, Wells Fargo to $2,500, and Citi to €2,200. In Germany, LBBW upgraded the stock to “Buy” with a €1,900 target.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
Geopolitics remain a second headwind. ASML still expects China to account for about 20% of full-year revenue, but its share in the second quarter fell to 14% from 19% in the first. South Korea became the top market at 43%. The risk of tighter export controls on advanced chipmaking equipment continues to hang over the sector. Correonero noted a paradoxical effect seen in the past: earlier restrictions prompted Chinese customers to pre-order machines ahead of new rules, temporarily boosting demand.
From a technical perspective, the stock’s recent slide has not broken the long-term uptrend. It remains 30.53% above its 200-day moving average of €1,170.60 and still above its 50-day average of €1,504.90. The 14-day relative strength index at 47.5 signals a neutral zone, offering no clear directional bias. The coming weeks will test whether the €1,500 level holds and whether the August dividend payment can attract income-focused buyers.
For now, ASML’s fundamental story – a record guidance upgrade, rising capacity targets, and a dividend increase – is being met with skepticism rooted in lofty valuations and unresolved export-policy uncertainty. The stock may need a catalyst beyond strong earnings to break out of its current rut.
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Asml Stock: New Analysis - 19 July
Fresh Asml information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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